{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2343b247-36a5-4b4e-89e3-a59397cef98f", "symbol": "ORY", "name": "Oryzon Genomics S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.124, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.933, "architecture_energy": 24.27, "architecture_maturity": 16.441, "architecture_confidence": 59.417, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.52, "rotation_up": 8.43, "upward_expansion": 11.95, "deceleration": 61.12, "rotation_down": 58.16, "downward_expansion": 64.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.9168, 2.961236, 2.962133, 2.946318 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.91, "trend_reference": 2.967167, "distance_from_trend": -0.019266, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.389628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217763, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.057398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.067308, "excess_performance": -0.191738, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019266, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017451, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.217763, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039889, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004583, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.07978, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1046158, "relative_activity": 0.800441, "balance": 2.07978, "dry_up": 1.017802, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058684, "annualized_volatility": 0.281928, "from_high_reference": -0.276119, "from_low_reference": 0.132296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.967167, "fair_value_reference": 2.389628, "structural_low": 2.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.022407, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.043653, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.146067, "worst_return": -0.153047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.157087, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.150555, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.356322, "worst_return": -0.237701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.086897, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.122374, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.233716, "worst_return": -0.220544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.240527, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.334144, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.115709, "worst_return": -0.288276, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.160202, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063903, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048872, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011029, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.243295, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196592, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052277, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120635, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031915, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049432, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082908, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002757, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.06, "volume": 197337, "typical_volume": 442879.3, "trend": 2.192, "fair_value": 2.814295, "relative_strength": -13.500439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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2.964133, 3.015273, 2.956886, 2.957701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.958, "volume": 1930597, "typical_volume": 1319561.95, "trend": 2.986433, "fair_value": 2.378782, "relative_strength": -14.858269, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.541969, "energy": 15.461876, "activity_lines": [ 2.944933, 3.004, 2.962362, 2.955389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.912, "volume": 1584031, "typical_volume": 1306361.3, "trend": 2.976167, "fair_value": 2.384179, "relative_strength": -16.679834, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.969599, "energy": 17.706068, "activity_lines": [ 2.922267, 2.981745, 2.962562, 2.950587 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.91, "volume": 1046158, "typical_volume": 1306977.3, "trend": 2.967167, "fair_value": 2.389628, "relative_strength": -18.057398, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.933368, "energy": 24.269871, "activity_lines": [ 2.9168, 2.961236, 2.962133, 2.946318 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }