{ "ticker": { "uuid": "234abb12-4bea-47e9-9ff5-82b6e14647da", "symbol": "TCC", "name": "Thai Capital Corporation Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.382, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.817, "architecture_energy": 43.375, "architecture_maturity": 40.97, "architecture_confidence": 67.799, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.17, "rotation_up": 21.1, "upward_expansion": 15.38, "deceleration": 47.26, "rotation_down": 58.57, "downward_expansion": 54.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.306667, 0.313273, 0.323476, 0.324882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.29, "trend_reference": 0.317333, "distance_from_trend": -0.086134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.391569, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.259389, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.104511, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.16, "excess_performance": -0.032325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086134, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04386, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.259389, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.191045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154825, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.244385, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1670300, "relative_activity": 0.300902, "balance": 0.244385, "dry_up": 0.286855, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084881, "annualized_volatility": 0.355503, "from_high_reference": -0.325581, "from_low_reference": 0.208333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.317333, "fair_value_reference": 0.391569, "structural_low": 0.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.060606, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.060119, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.089552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.134328, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.155752, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.10891, "worst_return": -0.137931, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.295182, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.264506, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.253731, "worst_return": -0.336633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 1.845064, "energy": 16.957891, "activity_lines": [ 0.319333, 0.325091, 0.333476, 0.326108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.32, "volume": 1993300, "typical_volume": 8768500.0, "trend": 0.314, "fair_value": 0.397753, "relative_strength": -13.261695, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.482214, "energy": 21.068846, "activity_lines": [ 0.318, 0.323455, 0.332095, 0.326581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.32, "volume": 1558300, "typical_volume": 8493320.0, "trend": 0.315667, "fair_value": 0.395716, "relative_strength": -13.184363, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.041732, "energy": 19.576679, "activity_lines": [ 0.317333, 0.322182, 0.330571, 0.326968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.31, "volume": 1147400, "typical_volume": 6517955.0, "trend": 0.316667, "fair_value": 0.393676, "relative_strength": -14.541026, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.075089, "energy": 27.27041, "activity_lines": [ 0.314667, 0.319273, 0.327952, 0.326602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.29, "volume": 1670300, "typical_volume": 5550980.0, "trend": 0.317333, "fair_value": 0.391569, "relative_strength": -19.104511, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.816918, "energy": 43.374763, "activity_lines": [ 0.306667, 0.313273, 0.323476, 0.324882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }