{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "234b4e96-0981-4d9d-b32f-86e7aa0eab33",
    "symbol": "HBM",
    "name": "Hudbay Minerals Inc.",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 22.106,
    "architecture_energy": 10.95,
    "architecture_maturity": 20.959,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.97,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 57.88,
        "rotation_up": 30.06,
        "upward_expansion": 25.72,
        "deceleration": 70.3,
        "rotation_down": 37.3,
        "downward_expansion": 27.39
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        23.897333,
        23.676782,
        24.295926,
        24.09521
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 27.61,
    "trend_reference": 23.995405,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.150637,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 11.860394,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.327916,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 20.495094,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.117103,
    "excess_performance": -0.008522,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.150637,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.092082,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.327916,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.118131,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.204951,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.136155,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.117103,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.672256,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 21303067,
      "relative_activity": 0.818394,
      "balance": 0.672256,
      "dry_up": 0.958101,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.138039,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.760867,
      "from_high_reference": -0.140978,
      "from_low_reference": 1.975522
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 23.995405,
      "fair_value_reference": 11.860394,
      "structural_low": 17.498213,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": 0.00596,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009348,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.275878,
        "worst_return": -0.154333,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": -0.049053,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.082456,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.337117,
        "worst_return": -0.483871,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.035663,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.11912,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.692279,
        "worst_return": -0.491308,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.073987,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.24737,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.67718,
        "worst_return": -0.462064,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.234969,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.050453,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012486,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-08-22",
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        "return": 0.221992,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-12-05",
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        "return": 0.03066,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.11008,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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      },
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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      {
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        "active": true
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 11.404442,
        "relative_strength": 0.817614,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 26557941.5,
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        "fair_value": 11.50113,
        "relative_strength": -4.413317,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -27.174522,
        "energy": 31.237048,
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          22.021333,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 22.35,
        "volume": 25209756,
        "typical_volume": 26162686.35,
        "trend": 23.704603,
        "fair_value": 11.60758,
        "relative_strength": 4.5243,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.789991,
        "energy": 33.61401,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 22.75,
        "volume": 31554943,
        "typical_volume": 26471035.8,
        "trend": 23.793323,
        "fair_value": 11.717741,
        "relative_strength": 4.152039,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.534513,
        "energy": 32.275172,
        "activity_lines": [
          22.006667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 27.61,
        "volume": 21303067,
        "typical_volume": 26030330.1,
        "trend": 23.995405,
        "fair_value": 11.860394,
        "relative_strength": 20.495094,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 22.105733,
        "energy": 10.94987,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}