{ "ticker": { "uuid": "234eb392-c8d8-4888-ab55-0d211549b49b", "symbol": "002601", "name": "LB Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.093, "architecture_energy": 16.927, "architecture_maturity": 64.358, "architecture_confidence": 63.762, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.54, "rotation_up": 21.59, "upward_expansion": 19.03, "deceleration": 52.04, "rotation_down": 30.24, "downward_expansion": 52.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.19, 16.176, 16.156476, 16.806989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.209999, "trend_reference": 17.908, "distance_from_trend": -0.094818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.357703, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.209461, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.268502, "excess_performance": -0.275902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044208, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066121, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030221, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11726, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268502, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.011479, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85262158, "relative_activity": 0.784957, "balance": 1.011479, "dry_up": 0.922088, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086414, "annualized_volatility": 0.422192, "from_high_reference": -0.318621, "from_low_reference": 0.186676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.908, "fair_value_reference": 17.357703, "structural_low": 13.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.010031, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.011595, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.199569, "worst_return": -0.188687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.06776, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001163, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.253731, "worst_return": -0.23415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059268, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.031194, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.222122, "worst_return": -0.201779, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 16.156667, 15.873818, 16.266381, 17.153247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.360001, "volume": 110238257, "typical_volume": 118964887.8, "trend": 18.115333, "fair_value": 17.348346, "relative_strength": -11.052094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.049133, "energy": 21.939477, "activity_lines": [ 16.199334, 15.970182, 16.212667, 17.035742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.379999, "volume": 95739750, "typical_volume": 112809953.0, "trend": 18.020333, "fair_value": 17.354238, "relative_strength": -9.195935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.89052, "energy": 22.782358, "activity_lines": [ 16.19, 16.091818, 16.185143, 16.923785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.209999, "volume": 85262158, "typical_volume": 108620122.9, "trend": 17.908, "fair_value": 17.357703, "relative_strength": -14.209461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.093038, "energy": 16.926687, "activity_lines": [ 16.19, 16.176, 16.156476, 16.806989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }