{ "ticker": { "uuid": "234f695e-568e-4f26-bf69-fc026437177a", "symbol": "ELUT", "name": "Elutia Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.786, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.044, "architecture_energy": 55.34, "architecture_maturity": 17.797, "architecture_confidence": 91.554, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.67, "rotation_up": 13.18, "upward_expansion": 11.02, "deceleration": 39.64, "rotation_down": 68.0, "downward_expansion": 89.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.88868, 0.924253, 0.9809, 1.009935 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.85, "trend_reference": 1.027137, "distance_from_trend": -0.172457, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.272685, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.625993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.654764, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.138892, "excess_performance": -0.326345, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172457, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098738, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.625993, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286548, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068596, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138892, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544706, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 144385, "relative_activity": 0.306873, "balance": 0.544706, "dry_up": 1.019977, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180407, "annualized_volatility": 0.435695, "from_high_reference": -0.66, "from_low_reference": 0.7 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.027137, "fair_value_reference": 2.272685, "structural_low": 0.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.044917, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": -0.0805, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.605536, "worst_return": -0.629487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.038095, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.134333, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.755102, "worst_return": -0.641026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.36646, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.429671, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": -0.184, "worst_return": -0.485294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.345733, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.350932, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.438596, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036697, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106195, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079208, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007937, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.56, "volume": 90960, "typical_volume": 310110.65, "trend": 2.6615, "fair_value": 7.416551, "relative_strength": -68.711672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"up", "direction": -3.579447, "energy": 18.448324, "activity_lines": [ 0.983647, 1.019331, 1.049668, 1.039903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.963, "volume": 133113, "typical_volume": 560777.2, "trend": 0.990777, "fair_value": 2.300494, "relative_strength": -27.29228, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.519566, "energy": 24.306097, "activity_lines": [ 0.974667, 1.006791, 1.039431, 1.038681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.95, "volume": 1190441, "typical_volume": 578713.2, "trend": 1.0029, "fair_value": 2.291135, "relative_strength": -23.206237, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.144225, "energy": 33.616534, "activity_lines": [ 0.963733, 0.992742, 1.028513, 1.03605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.93, "volume": 281532, "typical_volume": 536596.05, "trend": 1.015783, "fair_value": 2.282769, "relative_strength": -21.877946, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.932915, "energy": 35.573402, "activity_lines": [ 0.9468, 0.976147, 1.016643, 1.031347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8568, "volume": 303255, "typical_volume": 505666.95, "trend": 1.022903, "fair_value": 2.276082, "relative_strength": -26.42679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.72115, "energy": 48.912874, "activity_lines": [ 0.914133, 0.948062, 0.998564, 1.02109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.85, "volume": 144385, "typical_volume": 470504.15, "trend": 1.027137, "fair_value": 2.272685, "relative_strength": -28.654764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.043902, "energy": 55.339798, "activity_lines": [ 0.88868, 0.924253, 0.9809, 1.009935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }