{ "ticker": { "uuid": "235c8126-53d5-4eb5-94b8-3edf9c90b19f", "symbol": "603001", "name": "ZheJiang AoKang Shoes Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.434, "architecture_energy": 78.465, "architecture_maturity": 19.908, "architecture_confidence": 79.472, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.73, "rotation_up": 8.05, "upward_expansion": 17.84, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 76.41, "downward_expansion": 91.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.592667, 8.061818, 8.872429, 9.03671 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.13, "trend_reference": 9.186333, "distance_from_trend": -0.223847, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.507337, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.095686, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.216499, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.296844, "excess_performance": -0.25364, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223847, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0043, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.095686, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.482499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212165, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267714, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.296844, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.007482, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 61888000, "relative_activity": 0.981956, "balance": 1.007482, "dry_up": 1.46125, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.23228, "annualized_volatility": 0.94501, "from_high_reference": -0.495757, "from_low_reference": 0.327747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.186333, "fair_value_reference": 6.507337, "structural_low": 5.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.000888, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00217, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.29703, "worst_return": -0.175803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.012793, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.027594, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.276263, "worst_return": -0.15879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.05294, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.007988, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.180074, "worst_return": -0.170132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126394, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100518, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.329851, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.149708, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030591, "active": false }, { 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"modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.877601, "energy": 20.87431, "activity_lines": [ 10.525333, 10.542364, 10.013, 9.792108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.36, "volume": 132106585, "typical_volume": 57717838.75, "trend": 9.424, "fair_value": 6.487817, "relative_strength": -27.795971, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.187337, "energy": 20.267603, "activity_lines": [ 9.020667, 9.817636, 9.696095, 9.589634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.88, "volume": 100545547, "typical_volume": 60410991.1, "trend": 9.319333, "fair_value": 6.489994, "relative_strength": -33.592918, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.593664, "energy": 49.084637, "activity_lines": [ 7.574667, 9.068, 9.34881, 9.360989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.41, "volume": 73842300, "typical_volume": 61691156.1, "trend": 9.247, "fair_value": 6.495751, "relative_strength": -27.529319, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.368518, "energy": 60.453314, "activity_lines": [ 6.706, 8.469636, 9.069714, 9.17329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.13, "volume": 61888000, "typical_volume": 63025236.1, "trend": 9.186333, "fair_value": 6.507337, "relative_strength": -21.216499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.433851, "energy": 78.464963, "activity_lines": [ 6.592667, 8.061818, 8.872429, 9.03671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }