{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2367311b-dce5-4dfe-8d16-e3fd78811cfa", "symbol": "BTZ", "name": "BlackRock Credit Allocation Income Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.991, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.285, "architecture_energy": 14.266, "architecture_maturity": 29.977, "architecture_confidence": 65.749, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.82, "rotation_up": 41.13, "upward_expansion": 37.26, "deceleration": 40.03, "rotation_down": 33.75, "downward_expansion": 20.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.094425, 10.091488, 10.081599, 10.064368 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.24, "trend_reference": 10.07524, "distance_from_trend": 0.016353, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.296422, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101499, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.239763, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002235, "excess_performance": -0.127859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016353, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006153, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101499, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01659, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102398, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003489, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002235, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.869456, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1639092, "relative_activity": 1.189179, "balance": 1.869456, "dry_up": 1.15568, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017291, "annualized_volatility": 0.122444, "from_high_reference": -0.023365, "from_low_reference": 0.082004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.07524, "fair_value_reference": 9.296422, "structural_low": 9.463917, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.004299, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.008703, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.116616, "worst_return": -0.101523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.014937, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.036577, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.073011, "worst_return": -0.138024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011819, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.040405, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.098997, "worst_return": 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{ "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013861, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032321, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021255, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048103, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021588, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -9.607913, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.309835, "energy": 8.17884, "activity_lines": [ 10.086524, 10.076818, 10.064716, 10.061287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.97, "volume": 1013955, "typical_volume": 1383865.8, "trend": 10.076162, "fair_value": 9.279928, "relative_strength": -9.878976, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.263126, "energy": 15.51583, "activity_lines": [ 10.041915, 10.059543, 10.060832, 10.053798 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.24, "volume": 1639092, "typical_volume": 1378339.65, "trend": 10.07524, "fair_value": 9.296422, "relative_strength": -10.239763, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.285274, "energy": 14.26553, "activity_lines": [ 10.094425, 10.091488, 10.081599, 10.064368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }