{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2368b403-fa9f-46a7-843b-e265c8e9eb3a", "symbol": "PCEF", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II CEF INCOME COMPOSITE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.723, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.338, "architecture_energy": 40.303, "architecture_maturity": 47.058, "architecture_confidence": 55.479, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.77, "rotation_up": 45.1, "upward_expansion": 76.01, "deceleration": 66.64, "rotation_down": 25.77, "downward_expansion": 5.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.128107, 20.092939, 19.971703, 19.786525 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.35, "trend_reference": 19.620843, "distance_from_trend": 0.037162, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.20037, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.257275, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.039723, "excess_performance": -0.085902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037162, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016809, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183114, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005408, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062573, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001541, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039723, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.972678, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 432562, "relative_activity": 0.631449, "balance": 0.972678, "dry_up": 0.927631, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018287, "annualized_volatility": 0.108726, "from_high_reference": -0.000874, "from_low_reference": 0.126479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.620843, "fair_value_reference": 17.20037, "structural_low": 18.065147, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.010053, "positive_rate": 0.676471, "directional_follow_through": 0.676471, "median_excess_return": -0.00448, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.029418, "worst_return": -0.06515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010267, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.017954, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.056109, "worst_return": -0.086975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.049808, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.051294, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.101785, "worst_return": -0.018765, 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19.781326, 19.648734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.062218, "volume": 1222466, "typical_volume": 731064.65, "trend": 19.540805, "fair_value": 17.088509, "relative_strength": -4.408825, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.748066, "energy": 51.211741, "activity_lines": [ 20.106753, 20.044628, 19.831581, 19.684353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.902, "volume": 480022, "typical_volume": 719099.35, "trend": 19.562911, "fair_value": 17.123939, "relative_strength": -4.463068, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.623261, "energy": 41.182632, "activity_lines": [ 20.047386, 20.030659, 19.864649, 19.707655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.025, "volume": 406772, "typical_volume": 692187.2, "trend": 19.58961, "fair_value": 17.161314, "relative_strength": -4.719091, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.929389, "energy": 34.226693, "activity_lines": [ 20.038901, 20.034298, 19.905653, 19.737468 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.35, "volume": 432562, "typical_volume": 685030.25, "trend": 19.620843, "fair_value": 17.20037, "relative_strength": -6.257275, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.337667, "energy": 40.303368, "activity_lines": [ 20.128107, 20.092939, 19.971703, 19.786525 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }