{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23697c8c-8211-4577-b21b-be9164bd7a14", "symbol": "600783", "name": "Luxin Venture Capital Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.206, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.974, "architecture_energy": 68.13, "architecture_maturity": 18.464, "architecture_confidence": 77.671, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.72, "rotation_up": 12.31, "upward_expansion": 17.38, "deceleration": 34.57, "rotation_down": 70.62, "downward_expansion": 88.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.532667, 17.876251, 19.581649, 20.360378 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.450001, "trend_reference": 21.854864, "distance_from_trend": -0.155794, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.08423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.309976, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.828995, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.205084, "excess_performance": -0.16188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155794, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041993, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.309976, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.526672, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.359881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205084, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.614082, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 166167253, "relative_activity": 1.492316, "balance": 0.614082, "dry_up": 1.038337, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193515, "annualized_volatility": 0.789577, "from_high_reference": -0.532201, "from_low_reference": 0.528583 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.854864, "fair_value_reference": 14.08423, "structural_low": 13.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.039343, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": 0.026925, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.32505, "worst_return": -0.123277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.082272, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.055444, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.377844, "worst_return": -0.081681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.132675, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.014223, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.302696, "worst_return": -0.211572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"mixed", "direction": -16.353713, "energy": 18.583456, "activity_lines": [ 21.316921, 21.728486, 21.776695, 22.159043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.950001, "volume": 206474267, "typical_volume": 107995111.7, "trend": 22.287197, "fair_value": 14.004706, "relative_strength": 6.595007, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.764432, "energy": 39.233301, "activity_lines": [ 20.774743, 21.348052, 21.595715, 22.018192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.35, "volume": 98533388, "typical_volume": 108437303.25, "trend": 22.252864, "fair_value": 14.016726, "relative_strength": -18.630232, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.871343, "energy": 65.056694, "activity_lines": [ 18.603151, 19.980439, 20.894972, 21.506115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.27, "volume": 89284128, "typical_volume": 108138281.0, "trend": 22.231864, "fair_value": 14.029347, "relative_strength": -20.191235, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.070315, "energy": 72.479578, "activity_lines": [ 16.864, 18.787454, 20.233039, 20.991091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.07, "volume": 108484740, "typical_volume": 107070968.45, "trend": 22.064197, "fair_value": 14.048719, "relative_strength": -10.766849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.989751, "energy": 72.476712, "activity_lines": [ 16.177334, 18.040435, 19.780916, 20.593552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.450001, "volume": 166167253, "typical_volume": 111348601.0, "trend": 21.854864, "fair_value": 14.08423, "relative_strength": -0.828995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.974131, "energy": 68.129701, "activity_lines": [ 16.532667, 17.876251, 19.581649, 20.360378 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }