{ "ticker": { "uuid": "236b8fff-24a0-42e6-ac36-10fb1d27c26d", "symbol": "XS8R", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Europe Information Technology Screened UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.722, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.905, "architecture_energy": 58.452, "architecture_maturity": 2.866, "architecture_confidence": 67.929, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.97, "rotation_up": 6.27, "upward_expansion": 17.23, "deceleration": 46.08, "rotation_down": 72.46, "downward_expansion": 78.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 7732.9, 7934.036364, 8064.854762, 8028.662366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7986.5, "trend_reference": 8073.866667, "distance_from_trend": -0.010821, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9668.38372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.173957, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.161185, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011939, "excess_performance": -0.063174, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010821, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043974, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.173957, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002696, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151612, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011939, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.811139, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1304, "relative_activity": 0.580601, "balance": 0.811139, "dry_up": 1.552016, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04622, "annualized_volatility": 0.275191, "from_high_reference": -0.285379, "from_low_reference": 0.126764 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8073.866667, "fair_value_reference": 9668.38372, "structural_low": 7088.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.009313, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.006952, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.140109, "worst_return": -0.125765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004175, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011186, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.257158, "worst_return": -0.147354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.133641, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.072562, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.386384, "worst_return": -0.158707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.877587, "energy": 41.310012, "activity_lines": [ 8003.1, 8214.363636, 8147.247619, 8118.511828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7625.0, "volume": 3556, "typical_volume": 2419.9, "trend": 8179.166667, "fair_value": 9682.768336, "relative_strength": -19.037061, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.660628, "energy": 48.870136, "activity_lines": [ 7816.733333, 8094.418182, 8109.607143, 8079.384946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7532.0, "volume": 4016, "typical_volume": 2346.5, "trend": 8125.533333, "fair_value": 9673.842054, "relative_strength": -20.343497, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.09798, "energy": 63.608093, "activity_lines": [ 7674.333333, 7964.936364, 8064.783333, 8037.632258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7986.5, "volume": 1304, "typical_volume": 2245.95, "trend": 8073.866667, "fair_value": 9668.38372, "relative_strength": -15.161185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.904548, "energy": 58.452145, "activity_lines": [ 7732.9, 7934.036364, 8064.854762, 8028.662366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }