{ "ticker": { "uuid": "236e206a-ccc7-40be-8a53-23939472bc18", "symbol": "GRAPHITE", "name": "Graphite India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.443, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.908, "architecture_energy": 20.577, "architecture_maturity": 27.68, "architecture_confidence": 66.443, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.26, "rotation_up": 50.25, "upward_expansion": 38.03, "deceleration": 52.48, "rotation_down": 23.35, "downward_expansion": 17.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 672.083207, 652.665575, 669.403755, 669.31628 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 709.950012, "trend_reference": 664.753605, "distance_from_trend": 0.06799, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 551.594704, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287086, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.729871, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.147487, "excess_performance": 0.191196, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06799, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03794, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287086, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139529, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.147299, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173904, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147487, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.953959, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16151651, "relative_activity": 2.24027, "balance": 1.953959, "dry_up": 1.32289, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079908, "annualized_volatility": 0.352734, "from_high_reference": -0.115217, "from_low_reference": 0.403618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 664.753605, "fair_value_reference": 551.594704, "structural_low": 558.049988, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.040094, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.018237, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.227349, "worst_return": -0.200195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.073019, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.047748, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.238698, "worst_return": -0.244118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.034783, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.038394, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.312279, "worst_return": -0.211745, "sufficient": true }, { 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669.901337 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 605.947998, "volume": 5710096, "typical_volume": 6703779.6, "trend": 656.145272, "fair_value": 544.94216, "relative_strength": 1.125166, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.626013, "energy": 50.037491, "activity_lines": [ 614.733211, 649.040708, 669.452478, 666.801509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 637.650024, "volume": 6018967, "typical_volume": 6343771.55, "trend": 659.095272, "fair_value": 546.507076, "relative_strength": 5.611868, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.559896, "energy": 43.669832, "activity_lines": [ 620.402673, 641.284201, 666.171252, 665.608267 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 672.75, "volume": 12212539, "typical_volume": 6671945.05, "trend": 662.093606, "fair_value": 548.216533, "relative_strength": 13.513501, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.744592, "energy": 16.755786, "activity_lines": [ 638.22546, 641.984052, 666.615975, 666.489217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 658.0, "volume": 3767344, "typical_volume": 6570897.85, "trend": 662.036939, "fair_value": 549.700424, "relative_strength": 7.760309, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.124116, "energy": 9.597137, "activity_lines": [ 648.455269, 641.851176, 665.622841, 666.225114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 709.950012, "volume": 16151651, "typical_volume": 7209688.95, "trend": 664.753605, "fair_value": 551.594704, "relative_strength": 14.729871, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.908078, "energy": 20.576935, "activity_lines": [ 672.083207, 652.665575, 669.403755, 669.31628 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }