{ "ticker": { "uuid": "236e7c8e-7fec-4e47-ba9a-42e202ba5df9", "symbol": "000557", "name": "Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.584, "architecture_energy": 56.877, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.284, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.38, "rotation_up": 29.19, "upward_expansion": 15.67, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 46.96, "downward_expansion": 77.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.635344, 3.636849, 3.894085, 4.132213 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.66, "trend_reference": 4.433604, "distance_from_trend": -0.174486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.797173, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.237051, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.441823, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.301527, "excess_performance": -0.308926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174486, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094813, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.237051, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189233, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264418, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002414, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301527, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.297395, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39094555, "relative_activity": 1.118402, "balance": 0.297395, "dry_up": 1.204831, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066313, "annualized_volatility": 0.250815, "from_high_reference": -0.378608, "from_low_reference": 0.060648 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.433604, "fair_value_reference": 4.797173, "structural_low": 3.450722, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.00575, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.001702, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.113122, "worst_return": -0.174065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011299, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010307, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.413793, "worst_return": -0.200502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016394, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.015933, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.381356, "worst_return": -0.303316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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38499466.05, "trend": 4.527937, "fair_value": 4.817558, "relative_strength": -28.34228, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.298117, "energy": 68.428532, "activity_lines": [ 3.574041, 3.673507, 3.999591, 4.238377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.7, "volume": 38184279, "typical_volume": 36096334.35, "trend": 4.477604, "fair_value": 4.807748, "relative_strength": -22.652137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.907407, "energy": 63.114702, "activity_lines": [ 3.619337, 3.652451, 3.945266, 4.184961 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.66, "volume": 39094555, "typical_volume": 34955713.3, "trend": 4.433604, "fair_value": 4.797173, "relative_strength": -26.441823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.584094, "energy": 56.877404, "activity_lines": [ 3.635344, 3.636849, 3.894085, 4.132213 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }