{ "ticker": { "uuid": "237713e4-8fe8-448c-b2d2-090abded8656", "symbol": "MUX", "name": "McEwen Mining Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.716, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.062, "architecture_energy": 39.906, "architecture_maturity": 24.865, "architecture_confidence": 93.044, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.43, "rotation_up": 21.58, "upward_expansion": 5.16, "deceleration": 49.29, "rotation_down": 49.23, "downward_expansion": 76.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.816, 17.954182, 19.268762, 20.290022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.19, "trend_reference": 21.729333, "distance_from_trend": -0.116862, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.261218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.565097, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.842174, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.240301, "excess_performance": -0.365926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116862, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005128, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.565097, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.575568, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391566, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.240301, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.861139, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5166435, "relative_activity": 0.992775, "balance": 0.861139, "dry_up": 0.81625, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136412, "annualized_volatility": 0.676763, "from_high_reference": -0.353872, "from_low_reference": 0.954175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.729333, "fair_value_reference": 12.261218, "structural_low": 16.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.010893, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.62069, "worst_return": -0.336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.061319, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.026217, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.810931, "worst_return": -0.414657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.039474, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023836, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.402439, "worst_return": -0.616015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165629, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036209, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.717647, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023106, "active": false }, { "regime": 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11.883205, "relative_strength": -11.001186, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.360788, "energy": 67.699824, "activity_lines": [ 18.846667, 20.026909, 21.254762, 21.896043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.9, "volume": 4146713, "typical_volume": 5601995.1, "trend": 22.065333, "fair_value": 11.96, "relative_strength": -8.973701, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.771872, "energy": 59.871494, "activity_lines": [ 18.716, 19.641636, 20.930667, 21.692108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.88, "volume": 4241549, "typical_volume": 5655797.0, "trend": 22.026667, "fair_value": 12.021026, "relative_strength": -15.390536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.743735, "energy": 54.103533, "activity_lines": [ 18.444667, 19.168182, 20.541857, 21.422086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.37, "volume": 4298104, "typical_volume": 5498585.15, "trend": 21.927333, "fair_value": 12.069295, "relative_strength": -21.556987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.635967, "energy": 61.267428, "activity_lines": [ 17.696667, 18.482364, 20.048905, 21.05714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.17, "volume": 3917718, "typical_volume": 5440791.75, "trend": 21.829667, "fair_value": 12.124487, "relative_strength": -17.532225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.489796, "energy": 54.114026, "activity_lines": [ 17.384667, 18.084909, 19.68919, 20.750215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.29, "volume": 3608923, "typical_volume": 5366625.2, "trend": 21.783333, "fair_value": 12.185641, "relative_strength": -18.237672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.616515, "energy": 52.909307, "activity_lines": [ 17.26, 17.811818, 19.374381, 20.457333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.19, "volume": 5166435, "typical_volume": 5204034.15, "trend": 21.729333, "fair_value": 12.261218, "relative_strength": -12.842174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.062234, "energy": 39.905583, "activity_lines": [ 17.816, 17.954182, 19.268762, 20.290022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }