{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2377f005-965a-4d8a-b397-fc18fa062252", "symbol": "UT7US", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Treasury 1-10 UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.441, "architecture_energy": 12.09, "architecture_maturity": 42.142, "architecture_confidence": 52.973, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.48, "rotation_up": 22.71, "upward_expansion": 22.7, "deceleration": 50.4, "rotation_down": 40.93, "downward_expansion": 56.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.3431, 12.349145, 12.346238, 12.348689 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.3505, "trend_reference": 12.35155, "distance_from_trend": -8.5e-05, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.816639, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045179, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.638849, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001496, "excess_performance": -0.084379, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -8.5e-05, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00097, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045179, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008644, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072571, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001496, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.548167, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 4.548167, "dry_up": 0.570587, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003793, "annualized_volatility": 0.026901, "from_high_reference": -0.009623, "from_low_reference": 0.022562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.35155, "fair_value_reference": 11.816639, "structural_low": 12.268, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.002587, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.009589, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.021175, "worst_return": -0.037733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002393, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.02554, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.061848, "worst_return": -0.089739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006842, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.046264, "worst_return": -0.104063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031542, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.033179, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.05581, "worst_return": -0.138801, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017661, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017542, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024331, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009918, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01012, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022657, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014651, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028396, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", 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12.343743, 12.346684 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.38, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12178.8, "trend": 12.34605, "fair_value": 11.776229, "relative_strength": -8.717698, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.930875, "energy": 14.954765, "activity_lines": [ 12.354067, 12.342218, 12.346031, 12.34897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.3595, "volume": 863, "typical_volume": 10389.2, "trend": 12.348167, "fair_value": 11.783668, "relative_strength": -10.1887, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.447624, "energy": 16.806159, "activity_lines": [ 12.357933, 12.345509, 12.346314, 12.349838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.341, "volume": 1807, "typical_volume": 10200.5, "trend": 12.3498, "fair_value": 11.789354, "relative_strength": -8.876749, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.823536, "energy": 10.98358, "activity_lines": [ 12.355, 12.345636, 12.345036, 12.349375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.4155, "volume": 19613, "typical_volume": 10552.95, "trend": 12.35275, "fair_value": 11.795934, "relative_strength": -8.770439, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.342378, "energy": 43.763142, "activity_lines": [ 12.375067, 12.359555, 12.3512, 12.353614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.3, "volume": 1485, "typical_volume": 10440.65, "trend": 12.352467, "fair_value": 11.802178, "relative_strength": -9.246736, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.633892, "energy": 14.724677, "activity_lines": [ 12.352267, 12.351618, 12.346602, 12.350211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.3305, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 9917.95, "trend": 12.352117, "fair_value": 11.809271, "relative_strength": -8.852033, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.77944, "energy": 15.539516, "activity_lines": [ 12.3427, 12.3488, 12.345429, 12.348794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.3505, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9725.95, "trend": 12.35155, "fair_value": 11.816639, "relative_strength": -9.638849, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.441107, "energy": 12.089588, "activity_lines": [ 12.3431, 12.349145, 12.346238, 12.348689 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }