{ "ticker": { "uuid": "237b95a9-aaf8-4084-a8fb-8d15e88f26e7", "symbol": "600617", "name": "Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.642, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -15.879, "architecture_energy": 18.03, "architecture_maturity": 64.869, "architecture_confidence": 46.997, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.17, "rotation_up": 39.38, "upward_expansion": 22.03, "deceleration": 41.29, "rotation_down": 21.92, "downward_expansion": 56.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.238667, 3.090909, 3.181905, 3.256817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.41, "trend_reference": 3.304667, "distance_from_trend": 0.031874, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.831538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.204292, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.784429, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.027108, "excess_performance": 0.070312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031874, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035228, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.204292, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060665, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047844, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019012, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.027108, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.627649, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 292298051, "relative_activity": 1.057773, "balance": 0.627649, "dry_up": 1.264896, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112114, "annualized_volatility": 0.632415, "from_high_reference": -0.293996, "from_low_reference": 0.306513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.304667, "fair_value_reference": 2.831538, "structural_low": 2.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.014235, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.010386, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.226619, "worst_return": -0.125326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.055156, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.061008, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.325688, "worst_return": -0.183374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.164, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.041397, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22584, "worst_return": -0.114968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"down", "direction": -68.172403, "energy": 79.821745, "activity_lines": [ 2.808, 3.019818, 3.228048, 3.277763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.83, "volume": 149908759, "typical_volume": 288951929.25, "trend": 3.29, "fair_value": 2.825128, "relative_strength": -8.488636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.288535, "energy": 76.608718, "activity_lines": [ 2.798, 2.953455, 3.178095, 3.247204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.39, "volume": 179641285, "typical_volume": 272004831.6, "trend": 3.295333, "fair_value": 2.827694, "relative_strength": 7.937354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.496674, "energy": 32.170009, "activity_lines": [ 2.994667, 3.002, 3.183286, 3.253656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.23, "volume": 776284994, "typical_volume": 284236657.55, "trend": 3.295667, "fair_value": 2.828758, "relative_strength": 2.252613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.621001, "energy": 18.884771, "activity_lines": [ 3.106667, 3.026727, 3.173476, 3.249441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.41, "volume": 292298051, "typical_volume": 276333543.9, "trend": 3.304667, "fair_value": 2.831538, "relative_strength": 4.784429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.879471, "energy": 18.029635, "activity_lines": [ 3.238667, 3.090909, 3.181905, 3.256817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }