{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23827757-5507-4c05-b1aa-ba5faf72ae92", "symbol": "300638", "name": "Fibocom Wireless Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.945, "architecture_energy": 25.18, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.133, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.37, "rotation_up": 27.27, "upward_expansion": 15.84, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 29.49, "downward_expansion": 63.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.291334, 19.864298, 20.747649, 22.119698 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.83, "trend_reference": 24.322111, "distance_from_trend": -0.143578, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.006295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053453, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.746915, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.279986, "excess_performance": -0.287386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143578, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091008, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053453, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108185, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08185, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.279986, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.176889, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143530706, "relative_activity": 1.720692, "balance": 1.176889, "dry_up": 1.894797, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110665, "annualized_volatility": 0.430518, "from_high_reference": -0.427275, "from_low_reference": 0.2503 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.322111, "fair_value_reference": 22.006295, "structural_low": 16.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.001565, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -5.8e-05, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.357039, "worst_return": -0.206101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.004954, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.031274, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.537133, "worst_return": -0.280302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040378, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.081763, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.508793, "worst_return": -0.257811, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.079183, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164454, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077634, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098452, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077627, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.868611, "energy": 57.661934, "activity_lines": [ 19.052667, 19.765373, 21.307078, 22.97344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.83, "volume": 191705592, "typical_volume": 76785340.05, "trend": 24.867444, "fair_value": 22.011501, "relative_strength": -25.962784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.008393, "energy": 52.608575, "activity_lines": [ 19.274667, 19.618907, 21.027633, 22.632809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.700001, "volume": 137407462, "typical_volume": 79884474.25, "trend": 24.615777, "fair_value": 22.004558, "relative_strength": -20.943374, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.204985, "energy": 37.694881, "activity_lines": [ 19.818, 19.706979, 20.866046, 22.363942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.83, "volume": 143530706, "typical_volume": 83414537.2, "trend": 24.322111, "fair_value": 22.006295, "relative_strength": -23.746915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.944859, "energy": 25.180093, "activity_lines": [ 20.291334, 19.864298, 20.747649, 22.119698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }