{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23876076-36a7-4e43-aedd-6feb1454e50d", "symbol": "REAL", "name": "Real Matters Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.514, "architecture_energy": 57.316, "architecture_maturity": 49.654, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.53, "rotation_up": 18.88, "upward_expansion": 10.6, "deceleration": 43.82, "rotation_down": 62.75, "downward_expansion": 86.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.022, 5.097091, 5.272714, 5.432409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.17, "trend_reference": 5.717, "distance_from_trend": -0.09568, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.246859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.172384, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.36084, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.262482, "excess_performance": -0.382903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09568, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056185, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.172384, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253608, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097517, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.262482, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.299653, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104700, "relative_activity": 0.709061, "balance": 0.299653, "dry_up": 1.00772, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060556, "annualized_volatility": 0.296307, "from_high_reference": -0.35375, "from_low_reference": 0.095339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.717, "fair_value_reference": 6.246859, "structural_low": 4.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.043971, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.029897, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.352246, "worst_return": -0.163752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009174, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.131578, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.400474, "worst_return": -0.383425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064815, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.005026, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.2891, "worst_return": -0.563038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.126506, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107994, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.830222, "energy": 45.10134, "activity_lines": [ 5.238, 5.284182, 5.466762, 5.63843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.14, "volume": 72200, "typical_volume": 147045.0, "trend": 5.829, "fair_value": 6.281346, "relative_strength": -24.758527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.83243, "energy": 46.160696, "activity_lines": [ 5.202667, 5.241455, 5.422952, 5.592559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.94, "volume": 302600, "typical_volume": 152435.0, "trend": 5.798333, "fair_value": 6.271026, "relative_strength": -27.495577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.294462, "energy": 63.036811, "activity_lines": [ 5.104667, 5.176182, 5.365381, 5.535204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.8, "volume": 115700, "typical_volume": 150860.0, "trend": 5.765, "fair_value": 6.258333, "relative_strength": -28.807191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.723159, "energy": 73.477648, "activity_lines": [ 4.982667, 5.097455, 5.299048, 5.470796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.17, "volume": 104700, "typical_volume": 147660.0, "trend": 5.717, "fair_value": 6.246859, "relative_strength": -25.36084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.514069, "energy": 57.315958, "activity_lines": [ 5.022, 5.097091, 5.272714, 5.432409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }