{ "ticker": { "uuid": "238d938e-8e82-4ceb-ac4f-d571a591db2a", "symbol": "BGLD", "name": "FT VEST GOLD STRATEGY QUARTERLY BUFFER ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.85, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.245, "architecture_energy": 34.941, "architecture_maturity": 48.587, "architecture_confidence": 58.543, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.9, "rotation_up": 24.29, "upward_expansion": 15.98, "deceleration": 66.13, "rotation_down": 45.14, "downward_expansion": 68.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.572613, 16.544429, 16.757207, 16.960615 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.89, "trend_reference": 17.267443, "distance_from_trend": -0.021859, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.772567, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.226351, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.457174, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071672, "excess_performance": -0.197297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021859, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00999, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.226351, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084369, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071672, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.407105, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84440, "relative_activity": 0.828059, "balance": 1.407105, "dry_up": 0.834282, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024544, "annualized_volatility": 0.119769, "from_high_reference": -0.087027, "from_low_reference": 0.133724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.267443, "fair_value_reference": 13.772567, "structural_low": 16.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001444, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.00378, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.064757, "worst_return": -0.029512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.093803, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 2.8e-05, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.119022, "worst_return": -0.053363, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.113638, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009143, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167969, "worst_return": 0.059307, "sufficient": false }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.146749, "energy": 74.026066, "activity_lines": [ 16.456727, 16.616998, 16.87769, 17.105239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.4057, "volume": 76964, "typical_volume": 103372.7, "trend": 17.31614, "fair_value": 13.68534, "relative_strength": -10.348911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.223008, "energy": 60.545088, "activity_lines": [ 16.428493, 16.547416, 16.813642, 17.043969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.4241, "volume": 133585, "typical_volume": 103697.4, "trend": 17.289943, "fair_value": 13.72701, "relative_strength": -11.04329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.584655, "energy": 50.513179, "activity_lines": [ 16.42304, 16.495605, 16.759749, 16.986418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.89, "volume": 84440, "typical_volume": 101973.35, "trend": 17.267443, "fair_value": 13.772567, "relative_strength": -11.457174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.245164, "energy": 34.941154, "activity_lines": [ 16.572613, 16.544429, 16.757207, 16.960615 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }