{ "ticker": { "uuid": "238f01bf-7808-450f-a35f-bb98a3e9d937", "symbol": "600508", "name": "Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.207, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.461, "architecture_energy": 19.474, "architecture_maturity": 42.146, "architecture_confidence": 62.259, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.8, "rotation_up": 24.66, "upward_expansion": 14.0, "deceleration": 46.3, "rotation_down": 27.46, "downward_expansion": 59.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.441333, 8.324993, 8.654988, 8.802347 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.56, "trend_reference": 8.899101, "distance_from_trend": -0.038105, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.780275, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025088, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.193194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049711, "excess_performance": -0.006507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013238, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025088, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093746, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021932, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020483, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049711, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.745139, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44993115, "relative_activity": 0.672707, "balance": 0.745139, "dry_up": 0.718642, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086993, "annualized_volatility": 0.417913, "from_high_reference": -0.203879, "from_low_reference": 0.158322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.899101, "fair_value_reference": 8.780275, "structural_low": 7.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.010526, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.001032, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.276458, "worst_return": -0.104289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074027, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.021503, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.647116, "worst_return": -0.038233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039092, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.052976, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.688685, "worst_return": -0.037599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 8.040667, 8.408703, 8.791661, 8.879624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.33, "volume": 52383446, "typical_volume": 72191425.5, "trend": 8.883035, "fair_value": 8.788816, "relative_strength": -1.947253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.592565, "energy": 47.151647, "activity_lines": [ 8.16, 8.336244, 8.726652, 8.843672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.57, "volume": 41293437, "typical_volume": 68211554.05, "trend": 8.887513, "fair_value": 8.784536, "relative_strength": 0.53388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.674052, "energy": 27.041768, "activity_lines": [ 8.341333, 8.327738, 8.688792, 8.823477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.56, "volume": 44993115, "typical_volume": 66883654.8, "trend": 8.899101, "fair_value": 8.780275, "relative_strength": -2.193194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.460847, "energy": 19.474368, "activity_lines": [ 8.441333, 8.324993, 8.654988, 8.802347 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }