{ "ticker": { "uuid": "239ea973-50e7-4358-b61f-c7017f9b6593", "symbol": "SVE", "name": "UBS MSCI Switzerland 20/35 UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.833, "architecture_energy": 72.871, "architecture_maturity": 59.099, "architecture_confidence": 75.777, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 2.08, "rotation_up": 71.98, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 61.94, "rotation_down": 22.88, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.719333, 20.554473, 20.035095, 19.649394 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 21.004999, "trend_reference": 19.247833, "distance_from_trend": 0.091292, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.521173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.271399, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.467049, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.112199, "excess_performance": -0.058692, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091292, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042019, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.271399, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09935, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02467, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037648, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112199, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 23.858877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12823, "relative_activity": 1.178622, "balance": 23.858877, "dry_up": 2.744826, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017681, "annualized_volatility": 0.141655, "from_high_reference": -0.004502, "from_low_reference": 0.275814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.247833, "fair_value_reference": 16.521173, "structural_low": 17.006001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.007706, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.004887, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.081278, "worst_return": -0.123972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.026436, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.044324, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.116574, "worst_return": -0.032489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069632, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.062622, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.084152, "worst_return": -0.028021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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19.581382, 19.161248, 18.997054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 20.780001, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 5802.1, "trend": 18.868033, "fair_value": 16.320083, "relative_strength": -2.158586, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.079923, "energy": 97.466009, "activity_lines": [ 20.237067, 19.843764, 19.33611, 19.126406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 20.48, "volume": 5726, "typical_volume": 5909.55, "trend": 18.9529, "fair_value": 16.359917, "relative_strength": -3.084424, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.165022, "energy": 90.589336, "activity_lines": [ 20.400867, 20.015709, 19.473581, 19.230404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.565001, "volume": 330, "typical_volume": 5828.2, "trend": 19.027333, "fair_value": 16.399564, "relative_strength": -1.233451, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.795006, "energy": 90.435039, "activity_lines": [ 20.508867, 20.172273, 19.613719, 19.334411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.565001, "volume": 3804, "typical_volume": 5841.55, "trend": 19.102233, "fair_value": 16.437955, "relative_strength": -1.02618, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.65731, "energy": 87.2151, "activity_lines": [ 20.564001, 20.296964, 19.748872, 19.433615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.615, "volume": 102494, "typical_volume": 10561.7, "trend": 19.1732, "fair_value": 16.478539, "relative_strength": -1.470785, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.954827, "energy": 67.751315, "activity_lines": [ 20.584667, 20.4016, 19.879515, 19.531213 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.004999, "volume": 12823, "typical_volume": 10879.65, "trend": 19.247833, "fair_value": 16.521173, "relative_strength": -2.467049, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.832596, "energy": 72.87095, "activity_lines": [ 20.719333, 20.554473, 20.035095, 19.649394 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }