{ "ticker": { "uuid": "239f097e-afa0-42fb-95e3-0ac2a803115f", "symbol": "G11", "name": "G11 Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.029, "architecture_energy": 82.818, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 18.67, "upward_expansion": 19.13, "deceleration": 39.19, "rotation_down": 73.09, "downward_expansion": 97.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.206833, 0.218045, 0.24806, 0.266565 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.1975, "trend_reference": 0.291917, "distance_from_trend": -0.323437, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.229439, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.946088, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.419118, "excess_performance": -0.482823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.323437, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088947, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139205, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.754275, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319461, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.755321, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.419118, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.057935, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73148, "relative_activity": 0.256325, "balance": 0.057935, "dry_up": 0.356448, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12853, "annualized_volatility": 0.540773, "from_high_reference": -0.50625, "from_low_reference": 0.410714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.291917, "fair_value_reference": 0.229439, "structural_low": 0.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.026971, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.8125, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.045547, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.08011, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.074164, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.227273, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.309524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.208333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.310345, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.553318, "energy": 87.731284, "activity_lines": [ 0.229, 0.249318, 0.276488, 0.290898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.22, "volume": 171188, "typical_volume": 354554.0, "trend": 0.305667, "fair_value": 0.228878, "relative_strength": -19.270336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.013708, "energy": 87.000773, "activity_lines": [ 0.221833, 0.240364, 0.269583, 0.285134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.215, "volume": 61686, "typical_volume": 322415.4, "trend": 0.301833, "fair_value": 0.229167, "relative_strength": -21.237766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.454936, "energy": 86.901138, "activity_lines": [ 0.217, 0.233045, 0.262774, 0.279285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.205, "volume": 100859, "typical_volume": 303682.65, "trend": 0.297833, "fair_value": 0.229391, "relative_strength": -26.861436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.883403, "energy": 85.679235, "activity_lines": [ 0.212333, 0.225545, 0.255488, 0.273038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1975, "volume": 73148, "typical_volume": 285372.0, "trend": 0.291917, "fair_value": 0.229439, "relative_strength": -31.946088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.02916, "energy": 82.818476, "activity_lines": [ 0.206833, 0.218045, 0.24806, 0.266565 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }