{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23a39ff5-758c-4ad8-80b7-bde5dce78f4e", "symbol": "PSP", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR GLOBAL LISTED PRIVATE EQUTY ETF POST R/S", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 49.783, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.195, "architecture_energy": 35.394, "architecture_maturity": 10.314, "architecture_confidence": 66.491, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.49, "rotation_up": 62.84, "upward_expansion": 33.82, "deceleration": 37.16, "rotation_down": 14.37, "downward_expansion": 20.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.322067, 58.923391, 58.709512, 58.781877 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 63.1902, "trend_reference": 59.867565, "distance_from_trend": 0.0555, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 59.328367, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065093, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.631645, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01253, "excess_performance": -0.138155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0555, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040319, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065093, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017934, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106316, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057566, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01253, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.002865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85121, "relative_activity": 0.395532, "balance": 1.002865, "dry_up": 0.410647, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038153, "annualized_volatility": 0.242998, "from_high_reference": -0.101308, "from_low_reference": 0.167594 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.867565, "fair_value_reference": 59.328367, "structural_low": 54.12, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01537, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.000182, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.108546, "worst_return": -0.119622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022403, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028328, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.130222, "worst_return": -0.18832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.100935, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.044682, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.130387, "worst_return": -0.325227, 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60.610606, "fair_value": 59.053163, "relative_strength": -15.449733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.008256, "energy": 32.056015, "activity_lines": [ 57.398534, 57.454184, 58.007492, 58.757194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.52, "volume": 142236, "typical_volume": 253977.65, "trend": 60.31942, "fair_value": 59.127667, "relative_strength": -14.381927, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.842304, "energy": 16.744418, "activity_lines": [ 57.899693, 57.592151, 58.063703, 58.622316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.66, "volume": 63172, "typical_volume": 227273.6, "trend": 60.057592, "fair_value": 59.213953, "relative_strength": -13.154462, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.5777, "energy": 15.514724, "activity_lines": [ 58.686513, 57.938943, 58.227914, 58.579773 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.1902, "volume": 85121, "typical_volume": 215206.15, "trend": 59.867565, "fair_value": 59.328367, "relative_strength": -10.631645, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.194897, "energy": 35.394293, "activity_lines": [ 60.322067, 58.923391, 58.709512, 58.781877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }