{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23a4c9d4-0693-4da6-8962-7fbfc8a8de9c", "symbol": "00634R", "name": "Fubon SSE180 Inversed Index ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.655, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.413, "architecture_energy": 15.087, "architecture_maturity": 26.814, "architecture_confidence": 60.691, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.02, "rotation_up": 25.92, "upward_expansion": 25.0, "deceleration": 49.28, "rotation_down": 30.71, "downward_expansion": 49.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.100667, 3.098727, 3.093429, 3.124602 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.05, "trend_reference": 3.163333, "distance_from_trend": -0.035827, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.008718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.239158, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.819907, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.058642, "excess_performance": -0.437954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035827, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016071, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.239158, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017696, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.318199, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092915, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058642, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.307778, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3776310, "relative_activity": 1.568478, "balance": 1.307778, "dry_up": 1.877729, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033544, "annualized_volatility": 0.133424, "from_high_reference": -0.164384, "from_low_reference": 0.033898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.163333, "fair_value_reference": 4.008718, "structural_low": 2.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.008368, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.013228, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.093366, "worst_return": -0.246888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.021538, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.022569, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.127315, "worst_return": -0.146552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020339, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -9.4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.063492, "worst_return": -0.127139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.05787, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013576, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089514, "worst_return": -0.221983, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012685, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024896, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009852, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044888, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017115, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01995, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052239, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.12766, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043077, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009646, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022436, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 4.32, "volume": 3471000, "typical_volume": 2180750.0, "trend": 4.451, "fair_value": 4.284359, "relative_strength": -13.952307, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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3.070364, 3.102143, 3.138989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.22, "volume": 6718738, "typical_volume": 2198690.1, "trend": 3.176667, "fair_value": 4.035449, "relative_strength": -28.779411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.384871, "energy": 16.437371, "activity_lines": [ 3.133333, 3.098364, 3.108762, 3.14172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.08, "volume": 3235000, "typical_volume": 2244240.1, "trend": 3.170667, "fair_value": 4.026346, "relative_strength": -32.381988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.255603, "energy": 21.301757, "activity_lines": [ 3.124667, 3.098182, 3.102381, 3.135484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.12, "volume": 4353435, "typical_volume": 2368811.85, "trend": 3.168, "fair_value": 4.017051, "relative_strength": -29.6159, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.521323, "energy": 13.950586, "activity_lines": [ 3.125333, 3.104909, 3.100905, 3.132215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.05, "volume": 3776310, "typical_volume": 2407627.35, "trend": 3.163333, "fair_value": 4.008718, "relative_strength": -31.819907, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.413321, "energy": 15.086754, "activity_lines": [ 3.100667, 3.098727, 3.093429, 3.124602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }