{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "23a9771d-badf-40ef-8618-9328b19b1191",
    "symbol": "VALT",
    "name": "CI Gold Bullion ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -61.961,
    "architecture_energy": 52.484,
    "architecture_maturity": 45.307,
    "architecture_confidence": 95.342,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 17.22,
        "rotation_up": 26.59,
        "upward_expansion": 8.9,
        "deceleration": 58.51,
        "rotation_down": 51.72,
        "downward_expansion": 82.23
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        50.460673,
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        52.492948,
        54.314317
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 51.900002,
    "trend_reference": 56.604957,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.083119,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 39.418358,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316645,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -13.933424,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.155116,
    "excess_performance": -0.275538,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.083119,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011996,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.316645,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.250749,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.139334,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.15925,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.155116,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.452382,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 16430,
      "relative_activity": 0.369135,
      "balance": 0.452382,
      "dry_up": 0.454639,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.045505,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.226702,
      "from_high_reference": -0.246401,
      "from_low_reference": 0.250897
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 56.604957,
      "fair_value_reference": 39.418358,
      "structural_low": 48.818089,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.002896,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
        "median_excess_return": -0.009072,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.065865,
        "worst_return": -0.048923,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.047619,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.052134,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.181641,
        "worst_return": -0.057666,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.116171,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.04638,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.113501,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.2277,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.115052,
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        "best_return": 0.32588,
        "worst_return": 0.129519,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-10-27",
        "end": "2023-11-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-11-10",
        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.067106,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-01-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006773,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.016896,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-06-07",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.059823,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.035776,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.12387,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.029757,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.187228,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003181,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 52191.9,
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        "fair_value": 38.928802,
        "relative_strength": -16.011425,
        "stage": 4,
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        "direction": -75.39032,
        "energy": 81.630792,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 50800.6,
        "trend": 56.8753,
        "fair_value": 39.085797,
        "relative_strength": -15.293599,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -67.635162,
        "energy": 67.453656,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 49.753342,
        "volume": 27050,
        "typical_volume": 49521.1,
        "trend": 56.74135,
        "fair_value": 39.244044,
        "relative_strength": -14.893433,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.597254,
        "energy": 60.609967,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 51.900002,
        "volume": 16430,
        "typical_volume": 44509.45,
        "trend": 56.604957,
        "fair_value": 39.418358,
        "relative_strength": -13.933424,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -61.960649,
        "energy": 52.484013,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}