{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23bd3ba8-a80b-4a9f-9fd3-eaa50f173325", "symbol": "8937", "name": "Her Chee Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.311, "architecture_energy": 67.486, "architecture_maturity": 48.245, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.71, "rotation_up": 21.49, "upward_expansion": 15.21, "deceleration": 39.05, "rotation_down": 63.67, "downward_expansion": 93.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.136666, 25.018181, 26.904166, 29.051613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 24.0, "trend_reference": 31.548333, "distance_from_trend": -0.239263, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.264189, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.463494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.252918, "excess_performance": -0.69429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.239263, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116953, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010888, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.406743, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.524635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083488, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.252918, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.193118, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 442000, "relative_activity": 0.247731, "balance": 0.193118, "dry_up": 0.201249, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140705, "annualized_volatility": 0.572793, "from_high_reference": -0.473973, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.548333, "fair_value_reference": 24.264189, "structural_low": 21.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.009841, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.04379, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.05042, "worst_return": -0.135274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031621, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.065044, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.099762, "worst_return": -0.012245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.09205, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.187351, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.097156, "worst_return": -0.32517, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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42.973936, "activity_lines": [ 26.443333, 26.781818, 29.468929, 31.25586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.799999, "volume": 395772, "typical_volume": 3347595.8, "trend": 32.9425, "fair_value": 23.917166, "relative_strength": -51.173729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.104977, "energy": 50.861046, "activity_lines": [ 25.669999, 26.285454, 28.793452, 30.704032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.0, "volume": 391500, "typical_volume": 2681744.6, "trend": 32.48, "fair_value": 24.032974, "relative_strength": -51.433167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.529692, "energy": 65.888522, "activity_lines": [ 24.923333, 25.764545, 28.099881, 30.127097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.799999, "volume": 207000, "typical_volume": 1966075.4, "trend": 31.99, "fair_value": 24.14798, "relative_strength": -52.173798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.443052, "energy": 71.360296, "activity_lines": [ 24.363333, 25.339999, 27.45869, 29.567097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 24.0, "volume": 442000, "typical_volume": 1784194.8, "trend": 31.548333, "fair_value": 24.264189, "relative_strength": -52.463494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.311299, "energy": 67.485673, "activity_lines": [ 24.136666, 25.018181, 26.904166, 29.051613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }