{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23bea82d-040e-41fc-ad5c-0b2f4525e5f1", "symbol": "SMSI", "name": "Smith Micro Software Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.278, "architecture_energy": 43.232, "architecture_maturity": 26.201, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.57, "rotation_up": 20.13, "upward_expansion": 5.85, "deceleration": 52.89, "rotation_down": 54.95, "downward_expansion": 79.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.681333, 2.707273, 3.113462, 3.235742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.9, "trend_reference": 3.253017, "distance_from_trend": -0.10852, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.601702, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.750037, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.328421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.144662, "excess_performance": -0.042792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10852, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015649, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.750037, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025873, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.233284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208624, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144662, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.189249, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129651, "relative_activity": 0.16906, "balance": 0.189249, "dry_up": 0.162185, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.178247, "annualized_volatility": 0.745227, "from_high_reference": -0.375337, "from_low_reference": 0.414634 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.253017, "fair_value_reference": 11.601702, "structural_low": 2.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.113786, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.056264, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.458333, "worst_return": -0.223143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.15625, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.119418, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.265139, "worst_return": -0.199125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.071667, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.195702, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.415755, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104406, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.458333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.158985, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012449, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.349231, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.167, "active": false }, { 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.032538, "energy": 61.309892, "activity_lines": [ 2.666, 2.948618, 3.350674, 3.351355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.5, "volume": 72066, "typical_volume": 954047.65, "trend": 3.258567, "fair_value": 12.281894, "relative_strength": -31.284733, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.244138, "energy": 59.225228, "activity_lines": [ 2.592667, 2.809864, 3.251264, 3.301652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.59, "volume": 114298, "typical_volume": 829655.85, "trend": 3.253033, "fair_value": 12.011317, "relative_strength": -28.536132, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.993564, "energy": 47.236415, "activity_lines": [ 2.578, 2.717545, 3.164043, 3.258518 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.9, "volume": 129651, "typical_volume": 766894.4, "trend": 3.253017, "fair_value": 11.601702, "relative_strength": -23.328421, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.277787, "energy": 43.231965, "activity_lines": [ 2.681333, 2.707273, 3.113462, 3.235742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }