{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23bf737f-e642-46a1-9fd5-3a4744ce3e90", "symbol": "VISHWARAJ", "name": "Vishwaraj Sugar Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.367, "architecture_energy": 45.706, "architecture_maturity": 9.645, "architecture_confidence": 94.016, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.17, "rotation_up": 14.08, "upward_expansion": 8.28, "deceleration": 41.47, "rotation_down": 61.18, "downward_expansion": 83.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.238667, 5.318545, 5.453429, 5.471376 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.32, "trend_reference": 5.574, "distance_from_trend": -0.045569, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.075698, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.559446, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.701632, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.114809, "excess_performance": -0.0711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045569, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090207, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.559446, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00724, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177016, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027701, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114809, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.517373, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1224880, "relative_activity": 1.002424, "balance": 0.517373, "dry_up": 0.652574, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076778, "annualized_volatility": 0.471276, "from_high_reference": -0.478431, "from_low_reference": 0.285024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.574, "fair_value_reference": 12.075698, "structural_low": 4.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.005572, "positive_rate": 0.472222, "directional_follow_through": 0.527778, "median_excess_return": -0.02006, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.440835, "worst_return": -0.264505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.065352, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.077345, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.269036, "worst_return": -0.468286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.110638, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.166154, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.183871, "worst_return": -0.339346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"down", "direction": -49.545989, "energy": 33.694331, "activity_lines": [ 5.436, 5.511636, 5.544571, 5.593828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.28, "volume": 684770, "typical_volume": 1626607.2, "trend": 5.731667, "fair_value": 12.28203, "relative_strength": -20.301912, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.219757, "energy": 46.241196, "activity_lines": [ 5.359333, 5.462182, 5.524286, 5.561247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.19, "volume": 570927, "typical_volume": 1481255.8, "trend": 5.675667, "fair_value": 12.212913, "relative_strength": -18.881559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.738826, "energy": 53.008787, "activity_lines": [ 5.287333, 5.406545, 5.49819, 5.526301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.12, "volume": 708994, "typical_volume": 1381481.3, "trend": 5.615667, "fair_value": 12.143664, "relative_strength": -21.067713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.444004, "energy": 56.938987, "activity_lines": [ 5.220667, 5.342, 5.465667, 5.490452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.32, "volume": 1224880, "typical_volume": 1221918.6, "trend": 5.574, "fair_value": 12.075698, "relative_strength": -17.701632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.366662, "energy": 45.705715, "activity_lines": [ 5.238667, 5.318545, 5.453429, 5.471376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }