{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23c0ecfa-3fb6-4236-be5f-2603e9eb1201", "symbol": "002527", "name": "Shanghai STEP Electric Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.596, "architecture_energy": 71.208, "architecture_maturity": 20.541, "architecture_confidence": 81.65, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.18, "rotation_up": 9.81, "upward_expansion": 15.92, "deceleration": 37.8, "rotation_down": 69.16, "downward_expansion": 86.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.976667, 11.69, 12.560286, 13.105828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.83, "trend_reference": 14.029333, "distance_from_trend": -0.156767, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.946282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009734, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.560722, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.264303, "excess_performance": -0.271703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156767, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009734, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199058, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.265607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035583, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264303, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.525134, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50113224, "relative_activity": 0.887004, "balance": 1.525134, "dry_up": 0.946842, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134924, "annualized_volatility": 0.5644, "from_high_reference": -0.458829, "from_low_reference": 0.261194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.029333, "fair_value_reference": 11.946282, "structural_low": 9.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.056161, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.031499, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.33427, "worst_return": -0.271238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.039165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042658, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.665568, "worst_return": -0.343137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.299451, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.262647, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.860668, "worst_return": -0.413424, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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14.354065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.95, "volume": 31373849, "typical_volume": 53420537.2, "trend": 14.879333, "fair_value": 12.003397, "relative_strength": -24.814623, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.765697, "energy": 23.017269, "activity_lines": [ 13.756667, 13.911091, 13.843952, 14.289613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.52, "volume": 102242577, "typical_volume": 55556189.45, "trend": 14.718667, "fair_value": 11.995064, "relative_strength": -35.041433, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.394588, "energy": 52.853283, "activity_lines": [ 12.922, 13.483455, 13.597857, 14.072882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.1, "volume": 72754417, "typical_volume": 56407596.05, "trend": 14.542, "fair_value": 11.972628, "relative_strength": -36.858669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.827082, "energy": 78.05381, "activity_lines": [ 11.874667, 12.823091, 13.241048, 13.774903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.98, "volume": 46011113, "typical_volume": 55513925.9, "trend": 14.372333, "fair_value": 11.953654, "relative_strength": -37.166199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.495589, "energy": 82.41588, "activity_lines": [ 11.018667, 12.21, 12.901762, 13.480581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.96, "volume": 45096689, "typical_volume": 55807373.25, "trend": 14.226333, "fair_value": 11.944551, "relative_strength": -29.115846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.306863, "energy": 78.469725, "activity_lines": [ 10.800667, 11.843273, 12.680381, 13.26043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.83, "volume": 50113224, "typical_volume": 56497163.7, "trend": 14.029333, "fair_value": 11.946282, "relative_strength": -26.560722, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.596253, "energy": 71.207968, "activity_lines": [ 10.976667, 11.69, 12.560286, 13.105828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }