{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23c25940-0dd7-4df0-92e1-b40da44cf52c", "symbol": "BTB-UN", "name": "BTB Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 74.944, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.055, "architecture_energy": 11.794, "architecture_maturity": 21.448, "architecture_confidence": 59.683, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.65, "rotation_up": 29.57, "upward_expansion": 23.3, "deceleration": 32.68, "rotation_down": 28.03, "downward_expansion": 52.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.838, 3.839325, 3.817328, 3.822775 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.84, "trend_reference": 3.86307, "distance_from_trend": -0.005972, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.161391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.214655, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.237226, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057292, "excess_performance": -0.177714, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005972, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002193, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.214655, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045635, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102372, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057292, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.028241, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 177014, "relative_activity": 0.573798, "balance": 1.028241, "dry_up": 0.848571, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024035, "annualized_volatility": 0.169402, "from_high_reference": -0.084578, "from_low_reference": 0.146597 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.86307, "fair_value_reference": 3.161391, "structural_low": 3.592688, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.00545, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.001599, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.066019, "worst_return": -0.080806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047635, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.004291, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.121242, "worst_return": -0.035439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020435, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -5.9e-05, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124816, "worst_return": 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"activity_lines": [ 3.846096, 3.805223, 3.799858, 3.831138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.874871, "volume": 347544, "typical_volume": 385015.65, "trend": 3.877583, "fair_value": 3.137253, "relative_strength": -7.325257, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.349113, "energy": 16.130051, "activity_lines": [ 3.858995, 3.82255, 3.807434, 3.830931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.845064, "volume": 175026, "typical_volume": 353787.35, "trend": 3.874483, "fair_value": 3.145218, "relative_strength": -8.063054, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.770592, "energy": 16.497273, "activity_lines": [ 3.856664, 3.833993, 3.812441, 3.828833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.81, "volume": 347536, "typical_volume": 330917.0, "trend": 3.869407, "fair_value": 3.153409, "relative_strength": -8.259842, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.671568, "energy": 11.538051, "activity_lines": [ 3.841987, 3.835189, 3.81382, 3.824673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.84, "volume": 177014, "typical_volume": 308495.2, "trend": 3.86307, "fair_value": 3.161391, "relative_strength": -10.237226, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.05454, "energy": 11.794223, "activity_lines": [ 3.838, 3.839325, 3.817328, 3.822775 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }