{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23c750ec-8e1b-4eb7-95a3-28c34a481aea", "symbol": "688219", "name": "Orinko Advanced Plastics Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.446, "architecture_energy": 52.336, "architecture_maturity": 7.953, "architecture_confidence": 68.292, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.17, "rotation_up": 10.96, "upward_expansion": 9.45, "deceleration": 42.08, "rotation_down": 71.73, "downward_expansion": 80.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.484667, 11.072667, 11.257661, 11.322042 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.7, "trend_reference": 11.560236, "distance_from_trend": -0.074413, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.584022, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010958, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.993282, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.150119, "excess_performance": -0.106915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074413, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022971, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010958, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095523, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030868, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150119, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.288052, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22071159, "relative_activity": 0.653185, "balance": 1.288052, "dry_up": 0.873999, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096422, "annualized_volatility": 0.419273, "from_high_reference": -0.303385, "from_low_reference": 0.090724 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.560236, "fair_value_reference": 10.584022, "structural_low": 9.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.006056, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00093, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.253754, "worst_return": -0.116228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059095, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.044119, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.619048, "worst_return": -0.168059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.071873, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.075469, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.622563, "worst_return": -0.085394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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10.24, "volume": 41539507, "typical_volume": 36092967.1, "trend": 11.731569, "fair_value": 10.579288, "relative_strength": -11.826466, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.607043, "energy": 20.394698, "activity_lines": [ 11.626667, 11.700205, 11.513476, 11.572905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.9, "volume": 31111667, "typical_volume": 35060955.1, "trend": 11.669236, "fair_value": 10.579996, "relative_strength": -15.538002, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.449738, "energy": 38.788532, "activity_lines": [ 10.937333, 11.372859, 11.375395, 11.454739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.53, "volume": 23407644, "typical_volume": 34293521.85, "trend": 11.617569, "fair_value": 10.581308, "relative_strength": -10.274803, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.050447, "energy": 45.718003, "activity_lines": [ 10.619333, 11.195078, 11.306028, 11.38124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.7, "volume": 22071159, "typical_volume": 33790076.75, "trend": 11.560236, "fair_value": 10.584022, "relative_strength": -10.993282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.445546, "energy": 52.336005, "activity_lines": [ 10.484667, 11.072667, 11.257661, 11.322042 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }