{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23c8db0c-1f1f-45d7-b264-386db9fc4325", "symbol": "NBIS", "name": "Nebius Group N.V.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 12.921, "architecture_energy": 15.805, "architecture_maturity": 70.419, "architecture_confidence": 73.356, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.69, "rotation_up": 17.91, "upward_expansion": 44.84, "deceleration": 87.77, "rotation_down": 34.43, "downward_expansion": 25.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 189.324667, 204.533091, 205.712333, 186.980602 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 187.97, "trend_reference": 160.136, "distance_from_trend": 0.173815, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 61.164647, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.07318, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 27.006232, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.183159, "excess_performance": 0.995705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.173815, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.34893, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.07318, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.897569, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.270062, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.384407, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.183159, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.285559, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115302730, "relative_activity": 1.296352, "balance": 1.285559, "dry_up": 1.320928, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.295082, "annualized_volatility": 0.881339, "from_high_reference": -0.373141, "from_low_reference": 2.031285 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 160.136, "fair_value_reference": 61.164647, "structural_low": 79.69, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039769, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.044402, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.215404, "worst_return": -0.149686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.176075, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.142993, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.269469, "worst_return": -0.463692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.630168, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.533749, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.57951, "worst_return": -0.319174, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.540118, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.981212, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.540118, "worst_return": -0.540118, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2021-09-10", "end": "2021-10-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055167, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2021-10-29", "end": "2021-11-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038991, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2021-11-12", "end": "2021-12-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.228098, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2021-12-17", "end": "2021-12-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-01-07", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.641837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.427507, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.173091, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.393297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": 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160.136, "fair_value": 61.164647, "relative_strength": 27.006232, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.920612, "energy": 15.804919, "activity_lines": [ 189.324667, 204.533091, 205.712333, 186.980602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }