{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23cfa1f4-d242-48a3-bd06-56de3f6eafba", "symbol": "WTRE", "name": "WisdomTree New Economy Real Estate UCITS ETF - USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.797, "architecture_energy": 20.418, "architecture_maturity": 63.138, "architecture_confidence": 81.736, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.43, "rotation_up": 15.06, "upward_expansion": 46.85, "deceleration": 87.7, "rotation_down": 43.99, "downward_expansion": 31.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.192667, 27.498182, 27.719381, 27.303118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 27.190001, "trend_reference": 26.748333, "distance_from_trend": 0.016512, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.607308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.332794, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.10731, "excess_performance": -0.063582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05229, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258371, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074253, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117603, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10731, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.010451, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 487, "relative_activity": 0.534607, "balance": 1.010451, "dry_up": 0.9534, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027428, "annualized_volatility": 0.186103, "from_high_reference": -0.087278, "from_low_reference": 0.305642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.748333, "fair_value_reference": 21.607308, "structural_low": 23.924999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000144, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042302, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.076548, "worst_return": -0.062456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017967, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.076666, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073566, "worst_return": -0.041249, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055739, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.034147, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.209476, "worst_return": -0.095782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020272, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011494, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055376, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08202, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059287, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103107, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015885, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009291, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.968, "volume": 7, "typical_volume": 118.1, "trend": 18.471133, "fair_value": 19.881425, "relative_strength": -12.578893, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 27.445, "volume": 352, "typical_volume": 1106.6, "trend": 26.3015, "fair_value": 21.389769, "relative_strength": -5.529657, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.213113, "energy": 27.861325, "activity_lines": [ 27.930333, 28.265636, 27.717429, 27.132409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.735001, "volume": 1583, "typical_volume": 1161.2, "trend": 26.422667, "fair_value": 21.44216, "relative_strength": -6.636717, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.963895, "energy": 27.887497, "activity_lines": [ 27.433334, 27.977455, 27.688167, 27.160376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.674999, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1040.05, "trend": 26.559167, "fair_value": 21.499936, "relative_strength": -3.219539, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.396158, "energy": 29.486507, "activity_lines": [ 27.403, 27.878, 27.744119, 27.241172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.0, "volume": 1304, "typical_volume": 900.1, "trend": 26.670667, "fair_value": 21.553013, "relative_strength": -6.257654, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.651452, "energy": 19.548039, "activity_lines": [ 27.219667, 27.654727, 27.726571, 27.269613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.190001, "volume": 487, "typical_volume": 910.95, "trend": 26.748333, "fair_value": 21.607308, "relative_strength": -8.332794, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.796547, "energy": 20.418057, "activity_lines": [ 27.192667, 27.498182, 27.719381, 27.303118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }