{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23d145ee-6bd7-4e84-b361-27f91a9d1af7", "symbol": "GTK", "name": "Gentrack Group Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.424, "architecture_energy": 75.017, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 17.43, "deceleration": 41.15, "rotation_down": 53.39, "downward_expansion": 90.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.726667, 3.741455, 4.017952, 4.66628 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.87, "trend_reference": 5.577, "distance_from_trend": -0.306079, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.657692, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.552999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.847502, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.447143, "excess_performance": -0.475416, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.306079, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228951, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.552999, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024955, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.478475, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.447143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.235326, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137387, "relative_activity": 0.544871, "balance": 0.235326, "dry_up": 0.533804, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075929, "annualized_volatility": 0.644697, "from_high_reference": -0.654773, "from_low_reference": 0.115274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.577, "fair_value_reference": 8.657692, "structural_low": 3.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.039078, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.608696, "median_excess_return": -0.039372, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.180124, "worst_return": -0.305085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.110332, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.148362, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.138889, "worst_return": -0.414286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.206651, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.221067, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.006944, "worst_return": -0.349727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.755766, "energy": 63.771148, "activity_lines": [ 3.751333, 3.785636, 4.36481, 5.08772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.65, "volume": 242201, "typical_volume": 263078.05, "trend": 5.888333, "fair_value": 8.664872, "relative_strength": -52.416678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.063674, "energy": 63.952455, "activity_lines": [ 3.71, 3.752182, 4.222857, 4.93314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.61, "volume": 102342, "typical_volume": 265319.65, "trend": 5.728, "fair_value": 8.659808, "relative_strength": -51.758867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.10386, "energy": 63.885023, "activity_lines": [ 3.67, 3.719636, 4.098524, 4.786151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.87, "volume": 137387, "typical_volume": 252146.0, "trend": 5.577, "fair_value": 8.657692, "relative_strength": -47.847502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.42399, "energy": 75.016894, "activity_lines": [ 3.726667, 3.741455, 4.017952, 4.66628 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }