{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23d27edd-1dc7-4a86-a811-a40a374c9d11", "symbol": "ZWH", "name": "BMO US High Dividend Covered Call ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.905, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.551, "architecture_energy": 37.967, "architecture_maturity": 60.61, "architecture_confidence": 72.49, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.42, "rotation_up": 41.97, "upward_expansion": 65.44, "deceleration": 82.64, "rotation_down": 27.45, "downward_expansion": 22.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.74483, 26.777216, 26.528501, 26.138452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.9, "trend_reference": 25.669552, "distance_from_trend": 0.047934, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.221261, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.210552, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.796185, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062816, "excess_performance": -0.057606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047934, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.210552, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022475, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037962, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00454, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062816, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.29603, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59700, "relative_activity": 0.788483, "balance": 2.29603, "dry_up": 0.901076, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018237, "annualized_volatility": 0.09798, "from_high_reference": -0.008843, "from_low_reference": 0.200416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.669552, "fair_value_reference": 22.221261, "structural_low": 23.94184, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.014635, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.012627, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.034316, "worst_return": -0.031856, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.028846, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.009569, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084987, "worst_return": -0.090923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.054978, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.015379, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.127814, "worst_return": -0.084674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029908, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008601, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062611, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038269, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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26.756289, 26.751088, 26.268852, 25.893753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.937902, "volume": 41800, "typical_volume": 75370.0, "trend": 25.519998, "fair_value": 22.118165, "relative_strength": -1.247943, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.018973, "energy": 52.061135, "activity_lines": [ 26.793994, 26.800816, 26.381234, 25.991426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.5, "volume": 122300, "typical_volume": 77535.0, "trend": 25.6011, "fair_value": 22.169275, "relative_strength": -2.289995, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.806385, "energy": 39.590204, "activity_lines": [ 26.697101, 26.751831, 26.440598, 26.054652 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.9, "volume": 59700, "typical_volume": 75715.0, "trend": 25.669552, "fair_value": 22.221261, "relative_strength": -3.796185, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.551018, "energy": 37.966953, "activity_lines": [ 26.74483, 26.777216, 26.528501, 26.138452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }