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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.463, "architecture_energy": 65.934, "architecture_maturity": 35.747, "architecture_confidence": 71.534, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.9, "rotation_up": 75.23, "upward_expansion": 88.43, "deceleration": 50.54, "rotation_down": 16.35, "downward_expansion": 10.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 132.616187, 131.445124, 129.214516, 127.322931 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 134.1141, "trend_reference": 125.125491, "distance_from_trend": 0.071837, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 106.172491, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263172, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.109413, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.07959, "excess_performance": -0.046035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071837, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049337, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263172, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054212, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001094, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031393, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07959, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.918208, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46284, "relative_activity": 0.291515, "balance": 2.918208, "dry_up": 1.270344, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021243, "annualized_volatility": 0.109968, "from_high_reference": -0.011104, "from_low_reference": 0.252402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.125491, "fair_value_reference": 106.172491, "structural_low": 115.825249, 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"typical_volume": 146283.15, "trend": 122.752622, "fair_value": 105.102434, "relative_strength": -0.33973, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.560997, "energy": 59.979508, "activity_lines": [ 129.698026, 128.699867, 126.459776, 125.044453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 131.4556, "volume": 378836, "typical_volume": 162503.05, "trend": 123.362267, "fair_value": 105.362975, "relative_strength": 2.196994, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.892947, "energy": 65.718922, "activity_lines": [ 130.348614, 129.406564, 127.114052, 125.605935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 132.0, "volume": 310180, "typical_volume": 172169.7, "trend": 123.964984, "fair_value": 105.621087, "relative_strength": 3.184104, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.84107, "energy": 65.478082, "activity_lines": [ 131.123713, 130.07819, 127.790645, 126.163208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 132.4, "volume": 71474, "typical_volume": 158689.45, "trend": 124.57342, "fair_value": 105.890571, "relative_strength": 2.323945, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.649207, "energy": 61.16388, "activity_lines": [ 131.699267, 130.659781, 128.453752, 126.707403 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 134.1141, "volume": 46284, "typical_volume": 158770.75, "trend": 125.125491, "fair_value": 106.172491, "relative_strength": 0.109413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.463091, "energy": 65.934293, "activity_lines": [ 132.616187, 131.445124, 129.214516, 127.322931 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }