{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23d4cd17-920e-477b-9189-995ff454545e", "symbol": "MAITHANALL", "name": "Maithan Alloys Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 51.866, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.044, "architecture_energy": 16.66, "architecture_maturity": 14.853, "architecture_confidence": 69.834, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.26, "rotation_up": 18.2, "upward_expansion": 16.02, "deceleration": 64.73, "rotation_down": 53.06, "downward_expansion": 38.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 980.843323, 999.121806, 1000.585228, 991.908218 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 973.349976, "trend_reference": 989.73384, "distance_from_trend": -0.016554, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1038.692904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.979371, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.033354, "excess_performance": 0.010355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016554, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013449, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.062909, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039349, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029794, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042687, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.033354, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932829, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 236980, "relative_activity": 1.524217, "balance": 0.932829, "dry_up": 1.075574, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065445, "annualized_volatility": 0.34131, "from_high_reference": -0.178652, "from_low_reference": 0.184699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 989.73384, "fair_value_reference": 1038.692904, "structural_low": 821.60086, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.008716, "positive_rate": 0.607143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": 0.00077, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.218109, "worst_return": -0.152171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.012719, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.024509, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.196548, "worst_return": -0.196442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001486, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.077579, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 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989.053328, 1006.902719, 1001.761756, 992.927995 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 973.349976, "volume": 236980, "typical_volume": 155476.5, "trend": 989.73384, "fair_value": 1038.692904, "relative_strength": -2.979371, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.04421, "energy": 16.659833, "activity_lines": [ 980.843323, 999.121806, 1000.585228, 991.908218 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }