{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23da4719-b13b-4534-a727-9f5d7f30797e", "symbol": "NRG", "name": "NRG Energy Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.07, "architecture_energy": 46.896, "architecture_maturity": 39.587, "architecture_confidence": 90.174, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.58, "rotation_up": 16.56, "upward_expansion": 6.3, "deceleration": 45.57, "rotation_down": 57.16, "downward_expansion": 77.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 129.659632, 132.989176, 136.075085, 140.851806 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 118.13, "trend_reference": 146.716196, "distance_from_trend": -0.19484, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 106.096888, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113416, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.187523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.227134, "excess_performance": -0.352759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.19484, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059155, "read": "Falling" 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112.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006538, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.000142, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.09241, "worst_return": -0.062798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.089512, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.015633, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.102452, "worst_return": 0.044926, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.159661, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.165851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.201134, "worst_return": 0.118188, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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128.668622, "volume": 10437789, "typical_volume": 13522964.3, "trend": 149.410288, "fair_value": 104.259538, "relative_strength": -23.573679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.820996, "energy": 22.954036, "activity_lines": [ 136.372064, 135.29795, 139.56593, 144.296366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 140.547872, "volume": 11595177, "typical_volume": 12555995.55, "trend": 148.766085, "fair_value": 104.933232, "relative_strength": -15.627671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.802327, "energy": 21.070705, "activity_lines": [ 137.270605, 136.425358, 139.25555, 143.724597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.830914, "volume": 13316685, "typical_volume": 12533359.4, "trend": 147.723083, "fair_value": 105.562766, "relative_strength": -19.908869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.345078, "energy": 26.262336, "activity_lines": [ 135.564301, 136.099904, 138.368773, 142.761037 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 118.13, "volume": 29626847, "typical_volume": 13341556.55, "trend": 146.716196, "fair_value": 106.096888, "relative_strength": -31.187523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.070294, "energy": 46.89632, "activity_lines": [ 129.659632, 132.989176, 136.075085, 140.851806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }