{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23e1fdd6-70b0-4017-a710-2505bdd11680", "symbol": "OCGN", "name": "Ocugen Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.088, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.629, "architecture_energy": 66.578, "architecture_maturity": 26.457, "architecture_confidence": 90.859, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.94, "rotation_up": 16.92, "upward_expansion": 15.39, "deceleration": 38.07, "rotation_down": 59.21, "downward_expansion": 86.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.276, 1.324727, 1.38619, 1.480796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.28, "trend_reference": 1.562333, "distance_from_trend": -0.180713, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.104957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158416, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.040604, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037594, "excess_performance": -0.225048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180713, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001496, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158416, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.295444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240406, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155614, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037594, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.441105, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26503819, "relative_activity": 0.761558, "balance": 1.441105, "dry_up": 0.697026, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123191, "annualized_volatility": 0.946521, "from_high_reference": -0.530275, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.562333, "fair_value_reference": 1.104957, "structural_low": 1.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.088286, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.676471, "median_excess_return": -0.079837, "regime_survival": 0.911765, "best_return": 0.284943, "worst_return": -0.355263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.263487, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.20443, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.4375, "worst_return": -0.419355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.264992, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.29372, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 2.761589, "worst_return": -0.664314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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41931813.7, "trend": 1.582667, "fair_value": 1.086836, "relative_strength": -13.076356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.457855, "energy": 21.04401, "activity_lines": [ 1.438667, 1.390182, 1.507952, 1.560043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.36, "volume": 22937511, "typical_volume": 41160458.7, "trend": 1.581333, "fair_value": 1.091701, "relative_strength": -16.181534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.6922, "energy": 24.68206, "activity_lines": [ 1.43, 1.386, 1.482, 1.545677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.21, "volume": 23031605, "typical_volume": 40138462.9, "trend": 1.574667, "fair_value": 1.095637, "relative_strength": -24.114361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.232515, "energy": 33.946282, "activity_lines": [ 1.361333, 1.357273, 1.443952, 1.52172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.23, "volume": 24558857, "typical_volume": 37236842.8, "trend": 1.569667, "fair_value": 1.099963, "relative_strength": -23.273606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.487295, "energy": 55.099256, "activity_lines": [ 1.301333, 1.335455, 1.409714, 1.499484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.28, "volume": 26503819, "typical_volume": 34802093.45, "trend": 1.562333, "fair_value": 1.104957, "relative_strength": -24.040604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.629274, "energy": 66.578052, "activity_lines": [ 1.276, 1.324727, 1.38619, 1.480796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }