{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23e2da2f-c831-4e58-a301-075c2a90a031", "symbol": "000007", "name": "Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.238, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.863, "architecture_energy": 75.748, "architecture_maturity": 22.047, "architecture_confidence": 86.206, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.48, "rotation_up": 9.09, "upward_expansion": 17.55, "deceleration": 37.09, "rotation_down": 76.26, "downward_expansion": 93.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.541333, 10.534909, 11.705429, 12.18157 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.66, "trend_reference": 12.474, "distance_from_trend": -0.225589, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.396346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.30605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.920964, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.112132, "excess_performance": -0.119532, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.225589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03125, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.30605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.223401, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12921, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.57679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.112132, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.118932, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42031269, "relative_activity": 1.031974, "balance": 0.118932, "dry_up": 1.120485, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.190795, "annualized_volatility": 0.685218, "from_high_reference": -0.456998, "from_low_reference": 0.431111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.474, "fair_value_reference": 7.396346, "structural_low": 8.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.056895, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.404558, "worst_return": -0.233028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05499, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.036851, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.152597, "worst_return": -0.099083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.109264, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.067315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.049541, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030986, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052097, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074307, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02805, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.178977, "active": false }, { "regime": 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11.116667, 11.868, 12.705524, 12.801247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.34, "volume": 53936207, "typical_volume": 41260018.8, "trend": 12.605667, "fair_value": 7.339872, "relative_strength": -12.407276, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.375097, "energy": 73.325081, "activity_lines": [ 10.3, 11.351273, 12.346238, 12.585376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.22, "volume": 43299750, "typical_volume": 41095934.45, "trend": 12.533333, "fair_value": 7.366026, "relative_strength": -12.345273, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.169295, "energy": 77.513787, "activity_lines": [ 9.732667, 10.873636, 11.994238, 12.366946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.66, "volume": 42031269, "typical_volume": 40728998.95, "trend": 12.474, "fair_value": 7.396346, "relative_strength": -12.920964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.863084, "energy": 75.748296, "activity_lines": [ 9.541333, 10.534909, 11.705429, 12.18157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }