{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23e52cb1-1442-4e1a-8a8c-b2ad20bc4b0a", "symbol": "2254", "name": "Coplus Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 54.029, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.894, "architecture_energy": 24.861, "architecture_maturity": 26.31, "architecture_confidence": 86.333, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.18, "rotation_up": 24.06, "upward_expansion": 14.4, "deceleration": 38.08, "rotation_down": 34.36, "downward_expansion": 62.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.186667, 60.038182, 61.351905, 63.037204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 60.299999, "trend_reference": 64.153333, "distance_from_trend": -0.060064, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.225641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219171, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.479169, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.02901, "excess_performance": -0.316722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060064, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003598, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219171, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063834, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294792, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095631, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02901, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.660979, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29000, "relative_activity": 0.287215, "balance": 0.660979, "dry_up": 0.264931, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069524, "annualized_volatility": 0.529525, "from_high_reference": -0.356457, "from_low_reference": 0.082585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.153333, "fair_value_reference": 77.225641, "structural_low": 55.700001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.004687, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.040934, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.094148, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.025866, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.14879, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.044418, "worst_return": -0.084388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.057559, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.260447, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.019208, "worst_return": -0.126582, "sufficient": false }, 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"energy": 48.347352, "activity_lines": [ 59.566666, 60.412727, 63.010476, 64.007312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.400002, "volume": 32000, "typical_volume": 121489.8, "trend": 64.106667, "fair_value": 78.235256, "relative_strength": -27.569564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.601527, "energy": 33.682433, "activity_lines": [ 60.22, 60.438182, 62.634762, 63.836989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.900002, "volume": 22000, "typical_volume": 113089.75, "trend": 64.163333, "fair_value": 77.920513, "relative_strength": -29.025071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.480251, "energy": 25.286559, "activity_lines": [ 60.566667, 60.312728, 62.242857, 63.630108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 58.799999, "volume": 24000, "typical_volume": 105289.75, "trend": 64.126667, "fair_value": 77.566667, "relative_strength": -32.945241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.514307, "energy": 32.91886, "activity_lines": [ 60.106667, 59.987273, 61.694762, 63.284086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 60.299999, "volume": 29000, "typical_volume": 100969.75, "trend": 64.153333, "fair_value": 77.225641, "relative_strength": -29.479169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.893921, "energy": 24.861246, "activity_lines": [ 60.186667, 60.038182, 61.351905, 63.037204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }