{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "23f4f285-4832-48c5-8e6c-4cb748b96047",
    "symbol": "BW",
    "name": "Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 64.581,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -41.103,
    "architecture_energy": 64.272,
    "architecture_maturity": 26.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.867,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.55,
        "rotation_up": 16.68,
        "upward_expansion": 22.19,
        "deceleration": 43.53,
        "rotation_down": 75.11,
        "downward_expansion": 66.19
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        9.631333,
        11.090043,
        13.329831,
        13.530249
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 9.37,
    "trend_reference": 13.016066,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.28012,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 4.144624,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.26076,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.240223,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.01085,
    "excess_performance": -0.114775,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.28012,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.204065,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.26076,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -1.868725,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.082402,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -1.255383,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.01085,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.323839,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 11921515,
      "relative_activity": 0.679896,
      "balance": 0.323839,
      "dry_up": 0.880417,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 5
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.315669,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.219084,
      "from_high_reference": -0.564091,
      "from_low_reference": 7.201449
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 13.016066,
      "fair_value_reference": 4.144624,
      "structural_low": 7.757048,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.076541,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.080742,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.061453,
        "worst_return": -0.238087,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.046089,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.096774,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.012567,
        "worst_return": -0.732466,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.287672,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.34185,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.054469,
        "worst_return": -0.70018,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.111732,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.158825,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 5.472601,
        "worst_return": -0.789946,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.413794,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.207547,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.535211,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.201681,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.186869,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-24",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.260274,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.155963,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.018691,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.653847,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 1.354261,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-02",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.251969,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 1.115477,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.315571,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.025988,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 4.624957,
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        "typical_volume": 2416103.0,
        "trend": 5.73306,
        "fair_value": 6.2381,
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      },
      {
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 20952707.4,
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        "fair_value": 4.064225,
        "relative_strength": 5.759274,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -33.780837,
        "energy": 41.400072,
        "activity_lines": [
          11.85,
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          14.876125,
          14.18952
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "volume": 11424832,
        "typical_volume": 19291738.05,
        "trend": 12.858164,
        "fair_value": 4.092492,
        "relative_strength": 1.705435,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -33.695872,
        "energy": 60.027889,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 9.32,
        "volume": 19664231,
        "typical_volume": 18641321.35,
        "trend": 12.962301,
        "fair_value": 4.119211,
        "relative_strength": -4.118579,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -33.788356,
        "energy": 62.688695,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.992667,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 9.37,
        "volume": 11921515,
        "typical_volume": 17534333.65,
        "trend": 13.016066,
        "fair_value": 4.144624,
        "relative_strength": -8.240223,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -41.103061,
        "energy": 64.271506,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}