{ "ticker": { "uuid": "23f924b9-513a-4991-b808-8bbe8741eb33", "symbol": "ET", "name": "Energy Transfer LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.529, "architecture_energy": 66.415, "architecture_maturity": 11.063, "architecture_confidence": 77.4, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.5, "rotation_up": 72.37, "upward_expansion": 89.6, "deceleration": 42.53, "rotation_down": 10.6, "downward_expansion": 13.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.006748, 19.691889, 19.520823, 19.314918 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.13, "trend_reference": 18.931863, "distance_from_trend": 0.063287, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.416142, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305774, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.32024, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.141655, "excess_performance": 0.01603, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063287, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064662, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.305774, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016207, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013202, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001749, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141655, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.585483, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64269654, "relative_activity": 1.089627, "balance": 1.585483, "dry_up": 0.828298, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036337, "annualized_volatility": 0.164574, "from_high_reference": -0.027536, "from_low_reference": 0.311488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.931863, "fair_value_reference": 15.416142, "structural_low": 17.475045, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.014092, "positive_rate": 0.613636, "directional_follow_through": 0.613636, "median_excess_return": 0.002217, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.231298, "worst_return": -0.131796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.064556, "positive_rate": 0.8125, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": 0.020012, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.256536, "worst_return": -0.076587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.128829, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.01603, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.288178, "worst_return": -0.098232, "sufficient": true }, { 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5.462177, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.778043, "energy": 44.733264, "activity_lines": [ 19.681822, 19.444016, 19.364, 19.142464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.021827, "volume": 48920785, "typical_volume": 59856071.6, "trend": 18.806314, "fair_value": 15.353138, "relative_strength": 4.3222, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.053598, "energy": 58.690628, "activity_lines": [ 19.854651, 19.557681, 19.441055, 19.229519 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.13, "volume": 64269654, "typical_volume": 58983163.45, "trend": 18.931863, "fair_value": 15.416142, "relative_strength": 1.32024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.529106, "energy": 66.415406, "activity_lines": [ 20.006748, 19.691889, 19.520823, 19.314918 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }