{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24048fa7-d343-4c14-91f3-2b72e7e94273", "symbol": "002045", "name": "Guoguang Electric Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.694, "architecture_energy": 47.766, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.005, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.05, "rotation_up": 27.47, "upward_expansion": 20.23, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 43.75, "downward_expansion": 70.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.240667, 8.151091, 8.91753, 9.783821 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.9, "trend_reference": 11.067952, "distance_from_trend": -0.195877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.145696, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.370833, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.044329, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.355072, "excess_performance": -0.362472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.195877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160456, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.370833, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.350443, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020092, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.355072, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.999915, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150986528, "relative_activity": 1.992756, "balance": 0.999915, "dry_up": 2.210916, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102894, "annualized_volatility": 0.455034, "from_high_reference": -0.531579, "from_low_reference": 0.236111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.067952, "fair_value_reference": 14.145696, "structural_low": 7.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.015471, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.042868, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.382131, "worst_return": -0.213882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.076308, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.023962, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.04439, "worst_return": -0.285463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.100825, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.105371, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.6125, "worst_return": -0.39494, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 14.219093, "relative_strength": -46.649535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.29705, "energy": 70.35575, "activity_lines": [ 7.703333, 8.0626, 9.174945, 10.133277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.36, "volume": 155143341, "typical_volume": 70226882.8, "trend": 11.243619, "fair_value": 14.178581, "relative_strength": -36.683492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.789713, "energy": 63.012538, "activity_lines": [ 7.9, 8.034278, 9.009904, 9.935023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.9, "volume": 150986528, "typical_volume": 75767710.55, "trend": 11.067952, "fair_value": 14.145696, "relative_strength": -35.044329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.693564, "energy": 47.765806, "activity_lines": [ 8.240667, 8.151091, 8.91753, 9.783821 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }