{ "ticker": { "uuid": "240d698b-7bc5-47c5-bb66-2e9d0146ec86", "symbol": "FOXF", "name": "Fox Factory Holding Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.824, "architecture_energy": 60.918, "architecture_maturity": 44.861, "architecture_confidence": 72.402, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.81, "rotation_up": 64.24, "upward_expansion": 83.14, "deceleration": 48.4, "rotation_down": 16.55, "downward_expansion": 16.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.214, 18.622727, 18.104952, 17.854151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.13, "trend_reference": 17.819667, "distance_from_trend": 0.185769, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.372885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.434617, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.911109, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.100521, "excess_performance": -0.086933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.185769, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037072, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.434617, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164778, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.266771, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100521, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.748638, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4322660, "relative_activity": 1.572726, "balance": 1.748638, "dry_up": 1.061264, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096846, "annualized_volatility": 0.485636, "from_high_reference": -0.312734, "from_low_reference": 0.615443 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.819667, "fair_value_reference": 37.372885, "structural_low": 15.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.015932, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.002482, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.213479, "worst_return": -0.167083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.068139, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.015991, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.187079, "worst_return": -0.411425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.351763, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.348765, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.207268, "worst_return": -0.55027, "sufficient": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.377578, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058179, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013135, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081582, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.11725, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", 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"relative_strength": -15.354384, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.430233, "energy": 9.427407, "activity_lines": [ 18.102, 18.027818, 17.696381, 17.617978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.0, "volume": 2459729, "typical_volume": 2786988.05, "trend": 17.744333, "fair_value": 37.952179, "relative_strength": -16.787066, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.55197, "energy": 11.447628, "activity_lines": [ 18.106, 18.056364, 17.757571, 17.63572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.13, "volume": 4322660, "typical_volume": 2748515.2, "trend": 17.819667, "fair_value": 37.372885, "relative_strength": -5.911109, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.824175, "energy": 60.917884, "activity_lines": [ 19.214, 18.622727, 18.104952, 17.854151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }