{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2410534a-6278-450a-a1bc-69dfe8a6b467", "symbol": "DVDY", "name": "VanEck Morningstar Australian Moat Income ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 49.561, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 52.464, "architecture_energy": 63.004, "architecture_maturity": 17.27, "architecture_confidence": 59.853, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.72, "rotation_up": 67.55, "upward_expansion": 57.61, "deceleration": 26.83, "rotation_down": 19.46, "downward_expansion": 22.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.54, 20.318728, 20.175154, 20.13592 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.030001, "trend_reference": 20.204078, "distance_from_trend": 0.040879, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.227235, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039687, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.054319, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.03868, "excess_performance": -0.025026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040879, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015946, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039687, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039434, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013833, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.03868, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.315514, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64846, "relative_activity": 2.95564, "balance": 1.315514, "dry_up": 1.601363, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019715, "annualized_volatility": 0.107595, "from_high_reference": -0.088795, "from_low_reference": 0.107182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.204078, "fair_value_reference": 20.227235, "structural_low": 18.994174, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00661, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.013714, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.030188, "worst_return": -0.037494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003939, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.023054, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.033986, "worst_return": -0.035564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006224, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027327, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.018344, "worst_return": -0.002698, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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20.200001, "volume": 24753, "typical_volume": 17279.95, "trend": 20.213803, "fair_value": 20.200177, "relative_strength": -3.089984, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.567822, "energy": 5.212524, "activity_lines": [ 20.072667, 20.040364, 20.014603, 20.058996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.58, "volume": 49263, "typical_volume": 18881.85, "trend": 20.203868, "fair_value": 20.212605, "relative_strength": -3.318235, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.956625, "energy": 29.202987, "activity_lines": [ 20.248667, 20.143818, 20.075792, 20.082621 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.030001, "volume": 64846, "typical_volume": 21939.75, "trend": 20.204078, "fair_value": 20.227235, "relative_strength": -4.054319, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 52.463919, "energy": 63.003948, "activity_lines": [ 20.54, 20.318728, 20.175154, 20.13592 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }