{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24133ce2-e4db-4c87-b478-7fe5f27a858d", "symbol": "ITDC", "name": "ISHARES TRUST LIFEPATH TARGET DATE 2035 ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.913, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.977, "architecture_energy": 46.603, "architecture_maturity": 57.297, "architecture_confidence": 60.284, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.52, "rotation_up": 47.07, "upward_expansion": 77.14, "deceleration": 68.01, "rotation_down": 27.02, "downward_expansion": 6.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.67508, 36.596158, 36.378958, 35.971349 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.2594, "trend_reference": 35.51158, "distance_from_trend": 0.049218, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.625093, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21663, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.035772, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.066874, "excess_performance": -0.058751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049218, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025726, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21663, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009834, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040358, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009006, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066874, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.964514, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80841, "relative_activity": 0.805695, "balance": 1.964514, "dry_up": 0.763565, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01678, "annualized_volatility": 0.101983, "from_high_reference": -0.003733, "from_low_reference": 0.164739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.51158, "fair_value_reference": 30.625093, "structural_low": 33.0301, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011974, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.001804, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.027148, "worst_return": -0.055281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.049264, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022913, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.076119, "worst_return": 0.001808, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.08918, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.032182, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.100296, "worst_return": 0.078064, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 36.3846, "volume": 89442, "typical_volume": 103668.0, "trend": 35.280233, "fair_value": 30.499988, "relative_strength": -2.773981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.16957, "energy": 44.670532, "activity_lines": [ 36.54072, 36.492776, 36.097743, 35.723394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.191, "volume": 48787, "typical_volume": 100403.15, "trend": 35.345267, "fair_value": 30.539236, "relative_strength": -2.653056, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.106196, "energy": 35.27646, "activity_lines": [ 36.41564, 36.45232, 36.159472, 35.782153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.44, "volume": 87385, "typical_volume": 100402.95, "trend": 35.4216, "fair_value": 30.579652, "relative_strength": -2.950878, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.692739, "energy": 30.989374, "activity_lines": [ 36.41046, 36.451482, 36.236291, 35.852781 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.2594, "volume": 80841, "typical_volume": 100336.95, "trend": 35.51158, "fair_value": 30.625093, "relative_strength": -4.035772, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.977287, "energy": 46.602853, "activity_lines": [ 36.67508, 36.596158, 36.378958, 35.971349 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }