{ "ticker": { "uuid": "24141c03-282b-4d14-836f-236dfbecc8d6", "symbol": "SLSA", "name": "Solutiance AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.027, "architecture_energy": 42.486, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.789, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.36, "rotation_up": 23.86, "upward_expansion": 5.59, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 48.39, "downward_expansion": 76.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.127333, 1.131455, 1.188857, 1.249613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.24, "trend_reference": 1.334, "distance_from_trend": -0.070465, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.835321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.324369, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.150779, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2, "excess_performance": -0.26464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070465, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091281, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.324369, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047807, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040139, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.523972, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41188, "relative_activity": 2.069322, "balance": 0.523972, "dry_up": 0.961711, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096154, "annualized_volatility": 0.354395, "from_high_reference": -0.307263, "from_low_reference": 0.227723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.334, "fair_value_reference": 1.835321, "structural_low": 1.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.031377, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": -0.029043, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.269231, "worst_return": -0.22973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.068435, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.065699, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.331081, "worst_return": -0.288344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.144562, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.186686, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.254777, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074534, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.102703, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133929, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056452, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", 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-25.972758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.879272, "energy": 81.169739, "activity_lines": [ 1.152667, 1.192727, 1.258429, 1.317613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.07, "volume": 14753, "typical_volume": 17081.85, "trend": 1.376333, "fair_value": 1.841795, "relative_strength": -29.82806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.500279, "energy": 77.526111, "activity_lines": [ 1.125333, 1.164, 1.234619, 1.296839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.02, "volume": 13473, "typical_volume": 17755.5, "trend": 1.360333, "fair_value": 1.839103, "relative_strength": -33.150781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.310377, "energy": 75.93229, "activity_lines": [ 1.087333, 1.131273, 1.208048, 1.273849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.09, "volume": 7154, "typical_volume": 18063.1, "trend": 1.345333, "fair_value": 1.836731, "relative_strength": -29.36024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.436292, "energy": 64.789065, "activity_lines": [ 1.082, 1.116, 1.190381, 1.256409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.24, "volume": 41188, "typical_volume": 19904.1, "trend": 1.334, "fair_value": 1.835321, "relative_strength": -21.150779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.027383, "energy": 42.48645, "activity_lines": [ 1.127333, 1.131455, 1.188857, 1.249613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }