{ "ticker": { "uuid": "241aa918-16de-43d7-a7c1-5e1a02525952", "symbol": "002862", "name": "Shifeng Cultural Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.521, "architecture_energy": 56.685, "architecture_maturity": 65.701, "architecture_confidence": 94.336, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 24.2, "upward_expansion": 9.65, "deceleration": 60.68, "rotation_down": 56.41, "downward_expansion": 82.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.944, 13.088364, 14.484762, 15.281054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.47, "trend_reference": 16.436667, "distance_from_trend": -0.180491, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.671042, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.140453, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.50299, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.267138, "excess_performance": -0.274538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180491, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124561, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.140453, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.381152, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27503, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.267138, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.322126, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18932260, "relative_activity": 1.278022, "balance": 0.322126, "dry_up": 1.283502, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09811, "annualized_volatility": 0.384007, "from_high_reference": -0.463347, "from_low_reference": 0.192035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.436667, "fair_value_reference": 15.671042, "structural_low": 11.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.030586, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.025189, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.375421, "worst_return": -0.277234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042336, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.01253, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.308081, "worst_return": -0.186636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.038146, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.070092, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.446341, "worst_return": -0.190789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.200357, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108191, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.197144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.138874, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12752, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -36.856899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.571778, "energy": 90.870697, "activity_lines": [ 13.282, 14.431818, 15.679333, 16.378624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.4, "volume": 18911070, "typical_volume": 16172765.4, "trend": 17.148, "fair_value": 15.671218, "relative_strength": -32.658814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.622377, "energy": 90.816009, "activity_lines": [ 12.886, 13.854182, 15.308381, 16.052108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.79, "volume": 18810990, "typical_volume": 15238477.65, "trend": 16.854667, "fair_value": 15.665163, "relative_strength": -35.458049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.085607, "energy": 87.52235, "activity_lines": [ 12.45, 13.291091, 14.907143, 15.70643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.43, "volume": 19399450, "typical_volume": 14575368.65, "trend": 16.638667, "fair_value": 15.668249, "relative_strength": -24.683543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.624587, "energy": 63.998472, "activity_lines": [ 12.710667, 13.149273, 14.68581, 15.485484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.47, "volume": 18932260, "typical_volume": 14813724.15, "trend": 16.436667, "fair_value": 15.671042, "relative_strength": -27.50299, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.521017, "energy": 56.68526, "activity_lines": [ 12.944, 13.088364, 14.484762, 15.281054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }