{ "ticker": { "uuid": "241d3f46-c685-4d93-9be8-0b8f0845e5ca", "symbol": "RUG", "name": "RugVista Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.464, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.461, "architecture_energy": 61.623, "architecture_maturity": 12.033, "architecture_confidence": 69.831, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.86, "rotation_up": 70.67, "upward_expansion": 86.83, "deceleration": 47.59, "rotation_down": 13.13, "downward_expansion": 11.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.373333, 63.096363, 59.966663, 58.839181 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 65.699997, "trend_reference": 58.378422, "distance_from_trend": 0.125416, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.535144, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227231, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.776057, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0736, "excess_performance": 0.012106, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.125416, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000616, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.227231, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212209, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057761, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161729, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0736, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.185387, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37971, "relative_activity": 0.15093, "balance": 4.185387, "dry_up": 0.312868, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066039, "annualized_volatility": 0.345488, "from_high_reference": -0.127537, "from_low_reference": 0.379163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.378422, "fair_value_reference": 53.535144, "structural_low": 47.637581, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.014029, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.01054, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.144135, "worst_return": -0.17302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010278, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.46167, "worst_return": -0.089231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003311, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.070943, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.637071, "worst_return": -0.129121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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62.513332, 61.403636, 58.355167, 57.932133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.900002, "volume": 46560, "typical_volume": 251728.85, "trend": 58.295469, "fair_value": 53.451168, "relative_strength": -5.523172, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.860397, "energy": 49.083373, "activity_lines": [ 63.48, 62.269091, 59.139055, 58.361469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.699997, "volume": 37971, "typical_volume": 251580.5, "trend": 58.378422, "fair_value": 53.535144, "relative_strength": -5.776057, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.460558, "energy": 61.622622, "activity_lines": [ 64.373333, 63.096363, 59.966663, 58.839181 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }