{ "ticker": { "uuid": "241dbbfd-8f99-4157-84f8-19fa1874d6e8", "symbol": "9115", "name": "iShares Asia Trust - iShares Core Hang Seng Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.02, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.17, "architecture_energy": 28.823, "architecture_maturity": 73.938, "architecture_confidence": 53.212, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.96, "rotation_up": 52.22, "upward_expansion": 31.58, "deceleration": 38.44, "rotation_down": 14.72, "downward_expansion": 51.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.869333, 11.571923, 11.607491, 11.697698 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.01, "trend_reference": 11.870788, "distance_from_trend": 0.011727, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.754467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231231, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.568723, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.026742, "excess_performance": 0.006839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011727, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018859, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231231, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055962, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005687, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007542, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026742, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.063954, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.063954, "dry_up": 0.01162, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026575, "annualized_volatility": 0.158643, "from_high_reference": -0.09084, "from_low_reference": 0.135161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.870788, "fair_value_reference": 9.754467, "structural_low": 10.58, "invalidation": "A 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.614552, "energy": 70.695722, "activity_lines": [ 11.669378, 11.813925, 11.876772, 11.970928 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.12, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 23820.1, "trend": 12.028532, "fair_value": 9.608277, "relative_strength": 0.179523, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.804376, "energy": 85.235452, "activity_lines": [ 11.456824, 11.673131, 11.793659, 11.910951 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.6, "volume": 2575, "typical_volume": 22893.85, "trend": 11.97929, "fair_value": 9.624872, "relative_strength": 0.731294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.618489, "energy": 97.105199, "activity_lines": [ 11.13247, 11.452949, 11.668976, 11.818788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.91, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22693.85, "trend": 11.936454, "fair_value": 9.644595, "relative_strength": 0.631711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.011608, "energy": 90.62365, "activity_lines": [ 10.997718, 11.316089, 11.582101, 11.749801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.34, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 22413.85, "trend": 11.909788, "fair_value": 9.664181, "relative_strength": 0.988548, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.178733, "energy": 84.301509, "activity_lines": [ 11.058667, 11.277289, 11.543084, 11.71132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22198.85, "trend": 11.892788, "fair_value": 9.68567, "relative_strength": 0.75514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.505142, "energy": 55.576661, "activity_lines": [ 11.194, 11.278194, 11.523971, 11.684882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.71, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 21543.85, "trend": 11.881454, "fair_value": 9.705993, "relative_strength": 0.905167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.946237, "energy": 26.622281, "activity_lines": [ 11.399333, 11.329861, 11.529097, 11.67309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.13, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 21518.85, "trend": 11.877121, "fair_value": 9.730089, "relative_strength": 0.763201, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.500851, "energy": 22.795881, "activity_lines": [ 11.705333, 11.463946, 11.574603, 11.689125 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.01, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 21513.85, "trend": 11.870788, "fair_value": 9.754467, "relative_strength": 0.568723, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.169776, "energy": 28.822624, "activity_lines": [ 11.869333, 11.571923, 11.607491, 11.697698 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }